Hornets smart to lock up Kidd-Gilchrist ahead of breakout season
A point is a point, whether it's a point scored or a point prevented.
On its surface, the four-year, $52-million contract extension the Charlotte Hornets are reportedly finalizing with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist seems like a big bet on a player with three years under his belt to improve a great deal moving forward.
Kidd-Gilchrist seems primed to do just that, but even without an enormous statistical step forward, there's an argument to be made that the Hornets have made a smart gamble. Giving the player security now and betting on his development, Charlotte avoids going into next summer with an appreciating asset entering restricted free agency in an environment in which most teams have substantial cap space.
But were basketball cards still a thing, flipping Kidd-Gilchrist's over would be somewhat underwhelming. In 2014-15, he averaged 10.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 1.4 assists while shooting 46.5 percent, solid numbers but hardly those of a core piece, especially with middling offensive efficiency metrics.
The No. 2 pick in 2012, MKG has struggled mightily with his jump shot and has yet to extend his range to the 3-point line. That's a difficult profile for a wing player to have, but the combination of Kidd-Gilchrist's positional versatility (he can conceivably play either forward spot and guard any wing or forward on the floor), strong work cutting and moving off the ball, and slowly developing jumper all make his current shooting a little more palatable.
| MK"J" | 2012-13 | 2013-14 | 2014-15 |
|---|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 47.3% | 46.5% |
| 3FG | 2/9 | 1/9 | 0/0 |
| All Catch-and-Shoot | n/a | 26.5% | 36.5% |
| All Pullups | n/a | 37.5% | 40.7% |
| 10-16 feet | 14.3% | 15.4% | 50.0% |
| 16+ feet | 30.4% | 30.0% | 37.1% |
| "Open" or "Wide Open" 10+ feet | n/a | 32.1% | 40.8% |
Improved shooting is a key reason why Kidd-Gilchrist could be primed for a breakout 2015-16 season, one that would make Charlotte look savvy for locking him up a year before they had to. If MKG can become even a remote threat from 10 feet and out, he'll become a more flexible piece of a rotation that now has more shooters to place around him.
Even slightly better shooting from Kidd-Gilchrist would allow head coach Steve Clifford to unhesitatingly keep him on the floor, where he's an absolute menace defensively.
He possesses a unique and terrifying blend of quickness, strength, anticipation, and intelligence. Despite missing 27 games last season, Kidd-Gilchrist finished 15th in voting for the All-Defensive Teams. Though his steal and block rates are hardly robust, every ounce of advanced statistical evidence suggests he's an elite defender.
ESPN's Real Plus-Minus statistic ranked Kidd-Gilchrist fourth among all small forwards on the defensive end, BasketballReference's Defensive Win Shares ranked him ninth among all players with fewer than 1,600 minutes played, and, most notably, for years now the Hornets have been far better defensively with him than without him.
Defensive contributions are far more difficult to quantify - and monetize - than offensive ones, but there's little doubt Kidd-Gilchrist is in rare company when it comes to preventing points.
With a strong off-ball game, cautious optimism about improved range, and plenty of upside ahead of him at age 21, Kidd-Gilchrist seems not only a safe bet to make his extension look like a discount come next summer, but also to pull a Draymond Green and hear his name in both the Most Improved Player and Defensive Player of the Year discussions.
In other words, $52 million now may have saved the Hornets a great deal by preventing Kidd-Gilchrist from hitting the market seeking as much as an estimated $89 million next summer.