Basic NFL DFS Strategy: Maximizing Scoring
Getting too attached to - and distracted by - big names is an issue even experienced daily fantasy players often have.
Sure, Aaron Rodgers, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are safer plays, but they’ll also require more than a fair chunk of the available salary. And despite their high profiles, they’re still prone to an occasional poor outing that leaves them well short of meeting their exorbitant prices.
“Big name” players can generally be used in cash games, because even on an off day they should provide enough fantasy points to win some money. In GPP tournaments, however, if these top guys don’t produce to their ceiling, it can be a devastating day for an otherwise solid lineup.
Several factors can contribute to how daily fantasy players look for value at each skill position in a given week. Here are the top things to watch out for while building your roster:
Be careful with backup quarterbacks. In the rare event of a top-tier quarterback missing a game, his backup is commonly looked at as a cheap and capable replacement. A cheap alternative taking over the same offense on a good team? Sounds pretty good.
The issue is that good teams are good because they already have a good quarterback, to whom they’ve devoted considerable time and money - thus foregoing a search for a quality backup.
When looking for a cheap, unowned quarterback option, it is the guy taking over for a lousy team who should be more appealing. This quarterback stands a better chance of legitimately better than the player he’s replacing, and potentially taking over the No. 1 role with a strong performance.
Let defenses alter your strategy. While it’s simple enough to shy away from a top running back going up against the league’s best run defenses, or to avoid a normally safe wide receiver if he’s going to be covered by a cornerback like Richard Sherman, these scary matchups provide another source of value within a team.
If an offense is in for a tough day on the ground, look for their second and third wide receivers to get some extra work as the quarterback drops back a few more times. Similarly, a quiet day for a top receiver will provide some extra volume for an otherwise overlooked running back.
Don’t pass over a sure thing for a new name. There are few NFL teams that have the luxury of having two elite players at the same position. The Green Bay Packers, the Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts are three teams lucky enough to possess two top-tier wide receivers.
When one of Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb is questionable or inactive due to an injury in a given week, most owners will trend towards rostering Davante Adams as he steps into a larger role. Adams will see more work than he normally would, and he’d be an excellent candidate to outperform a low price tag - but Nelson or Cobb would soak up more of the quality targets if the other were forced to sit out.
With many owners likely to avoid the higher priced players, they can prove to be more than worth it when having to work double duty.
When looking for a tight end, think like a quarterback. While paying up for Rob Gronkowski is great and all, it is occasionally possible to match Gronk’s production at a fraction of the cost.
Gronkowski’s price signifies the floor of his production and the safety he represents. When in search of finding a viable alternative, a tight end associated with an inexperienced quarterback is an excellent place to start.
Both young and backup quarterbacks tend to avoid the risky downfield throws that Aaron Rodgers launches at his wide receivers. Instead, inexperienced signal callers will look for a safer option in the middle of the field. Their tight ends can then not only build up substantial yardage totals, but also haul in an abnormal amount of receptions while picking up shorter chunks of yardage.