Basic NFL DFS Strategy: Mastering the Injury Report

The NFL’s injury list is the single most important piece of information a daily fantasy player will consume each week.

Anyone can pinpoint Aaron Rodgers as an elite quarterback, or Odell Beckham Jr. as a rising star capable of multi-touchdown games every week. But it takes a true DFS star to study the injury list inside out and make savvy selections based on who’s in, and who’s out.

Before diving into the injury list, it’s important to know what each designation means:

If a player is listed as “Out” or “Inactive”, he should be taken out of consideration for DFS play. The same should be said for players listed as “Doubtful”; even though a handful of players each season recover sufficiently to suit up, it’s not worth saving a roster spot for these players.

Players listed as “Probable” are safe to roster, but DFS participants still need to monitor the news leading up to the game. Among the questions you’ll need to ask yourself:

Is there the potential for a decoy situation? Calvin Johnson and Jimmy Graham were among the star players who found themselves acting as a “decoy” at times in 2014, playing through injuries only to serve as a distraction for opposing defenses. DFS players should be wary of players coming off injury absences - particularly receivers and tight ends.

Is there the potential for a blowout? Teams often don’t like taking chances with their offensive players, particularly those that show up on the injury list. Don’t be surprised to see the second-team units taking the majority of late snaps when one team is up by a lot - and players nursing injuries, even those listed as “probable”, are often the first to sit.

Is there the potential of aggravation? Certain injuries are easier to play through without risk of re-injury than others - which is why it’s critical to consider the type of injury when assessing whether to take the plunge on a “Probable” player. Ankle and leg injuries are particularly treacherous, since every player on the field needs to be able to run, cut and push off his legs.

“Questionable” designations are easily the diciest of all. In some cases, the final status of the player in question isn’t determined until an hour - or less - before game time. In addition to the concerns above, there’s a decent chance the player won’t even suit up at all - a development that could leave DFS players scrambling for a last-minute replacement.

There are pros and cons to rostering “Questionable” players, depending on a number of factors:

PROS

Low ownership: Risk-averse players tend to avoid players with last-minute “Questionable” designations due to the potential for a late scratch or a subpar performance due to the injury. That often leads to low ownership - the two words every GPP veteran wants to hear - and can pay off handsomely if the player in question plays and excels.

Lower salary: Players facing “Questionable” designations at the start of a week will often take a modest salary hit as a result. This can work to your advantage if the player returns to action and subsequently performs to his capabilities. Bear in mind, however, that most elite players retain their high salaries from week to week whether they’re healthy or not.

Potentially fresher: Players nursing injuries that may keep them out of the coming week will often be given additional time off, forgoing practice in favor of rest and treatment. Given the demands of the grueling season, that can actually work to the player’s advantage in two ways - allowing him to compete, and keeping him fresher come game time.

CONS

Alternate options: Daily fantasy players will always have a viable option in place of a player who is considered “Questionable”. With so many talented players to choose from, simply settling for a more stable option may be the best course of action.

Late switch problems: Taking a chance on a questionable player is especially risky if he's taking part in the later slate of games. Should he be ruled out, the number of players you have to choose from diminishes due to the fact that you won't be able to select an early player as a replacement.

Injury limitations: Sometimes players return at less than 100 percent - and that can cause major problems for DFS players expecting full value from their high-risk picks. Pay close attention to how a “Questionable” player practices during the week; it shouldn’t be taken as gospel, but could offer clues as to how healthy he is - and how much he’ll play that week.

Other injury-related items to consider include:

Potential replacements: One man’s injury is another man’s opportunity to start. If it appears that an injured player is going to miss a game, don’t hesitate to take a chance on the guy replacing him; his floor may be low, but his ceiling could be through the roof (pun intended). Be aware, however, that ownership will likely be high.

The Sunday Night Dilemma: Injuries involving players who suit up Sunday night can create major headaches for DFS participants. The available options at that point in the week are scarce, making it the ultimate high-risk maneuver to ride a “Questionable” player in the last game of the night. Do so with extreme caution.

Tournament or cash game: As stated in other strategy guides, rosters for GPPs and cash games look vastly different. If you’re in a GPP, players with injury risks are the ideal position fillers if you’re looking to take a shot with lower-ownership players. But in cash games, the focus should remain on consistent, healthy players with higher floors.