Basic NFL DFS Strategy: Navigating the Tight End Tidepool
With NFL offenses more focused on the pass than ever before, tight end has become one of the most intriguing positions within the daily fantasy realm.
Seen largely as a way to save money for other positions, the TE spot is still an essential part of any winning roster. If you don’t hit paydirt with your tight end selection, you’ll have virtually no chance of finishing in the top five percent of a large-scale tournament.
That said, the uncertainty at the position is staggering. No player better epitomized the volatile nature of fantasy tight ends in 2014 than Jimmy Graham, as evidenced by his game log:
Week 1: 8 REC, 82 YDS
Week 2: 10 REC, 118 YDS, 2 TD
Week 3: 6 REC, 54 YDS
Week 4: BYE
Week 5: 2 REC, 36 YDS
Week 6: INJURED
Week 7: 0 REC, 0 YDS
Week 8: 5 REC, 59 YDS, TD
Week 9: 7 REC, 83 YDS, TD
Week 10: 10 REC, 76 YDS, 2 TD
Week 11: 3 REC, 29 YDS
Week 12: 6 REC, 47 YDS, 2 TD
Week 13: INJURED
Week 14: 3 REC, 25 YDS
Week 15: 5 REC, 87 YDS
Week 16: 6 REC, 53 YDS, TD
Week 17: 6 REC, 54 YDS
Six of Graham’s 10 touchdowns came in Weeks 2, 10 and 12. He had fewer than 50 yards five times, and left Week 7 owners completely high and dry by missing both passes thrown his way - serving primarily as a decoy due to an ailing shoulder.
Finding consistent value within the position is challenging, but it can be achieved. Here are some tips to help you search for strong GPP tight end plays from week to week:
1) Seek out teams with injured receivers: Teams dealing with absences at wideout are good bets to turn to their tight ends for help. Nearly every team in the league has a capable pass catcher at the position, and many are reasonably priced in DFS. Taking advantage of a banged-up offense by snagging a low-cost, high-upside tight end could unearth major value.
2) Favor targets over receptions. This may seem counterintuitive, but it’s a great strategy when looking to save money. DFS salaries are based primarily on matchup and past production, but don’t necessarily take targets into consideration. Seek out a low-cost TE that draws a good number of targets; he’s a great bet to his his floor, and his ceiling could be sky-high.
3) Play the matchups. It sounds simple, but it’s the biggest potential edge a DFS player can give himself on a weekly basis. Some defenses struggle mightily defending tight ends, so key in on players opposing those teams. The cost may be slightly higher than if that player were matched up against a better defense, but the upside is always worth it.
Here are useful strategies for rostering TEs in cash games:
1) Stick with known commodities. Remember the earlier suggestion regarding wide receiver injuries and tight end opportunities that may result? It’s probably best to ignore that advice when it comes to cash games, since floor is the most important thing in those contests. Lean toward TEs with established track records rather than risk a zero from the position.
2) Ignore touchdowns. TDs are generally non-predictive in DFS, so don’t let the statistic sway you from more important considerations. Tight end scores can be particularly hard to predict, so pay more attention to targets and receptions and don’t focus too heavily on how many TDs a tight end has racked up (and TEs with more targets are better bets for scores, anyhow.)
3) DON’T ignore red zone targets. The more frequently a tight end is targeted in the red zone, the greater the chance that he’ll score a touchdown. A player’s red-zone TD rate isn’t nearly as important as his red-zone targets per game, which gives a much clearer indication of his role in his team’s offense. Take a chance on players who see action in the red zone.
4) Punt at your own risk. Some players favor “punting” the category, spending as little as possible on a long-shot with decent upside but a rock-bottom floor. This might work in cash games with less experienced players, but likely won’t fly in games featuring more experienced DFS participants. Use this tactic only if you believe you can ace the rest of your roster.