Basic NFL DFS Strategy: The Quarterback-Receiver Combo Play
What’s better than scoring a touchdown in DFS play? Scoring TWO touchdowns - or rather, benefiting twice from the same one.
Selecting a quarterback and wide receiver from the same team is a widely-used tactic in daily fantasy circles - and with good reason. When the connection is strong, great things happen - as evidenced by anyone who paired Eli and Odell, Peyton and Demaryius or Tony and Dez last season and rode those combos to victory.
A quick glance at last season’s five best pass-reliant DFS quarterback performances of the season, and it’s easy to see why the QB/WR combo is such an effective strategy:
1) Pittsburgh Steelers 51, Indianapolis Colts 34 (Oct. 26)
| POS | NAME | SCORELINE |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Ben Roethlisberger | 40-49/522 YDS/6 TD/0 INT |
| WR | Antonio Brown | 10 REC/122 YDS/2 TD |
2) Houston Texans 45, Tennessee Titans 21 (Nov. 30)
| POS | NAME | SCORELINE |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 24-33/358 YDS/6 TD/0 INT |
| WR | DeAndre Hopkins | 9 REC/238 YDS/2 TD |
3) Pittsburgh Steelers 43, Baltimore Ravens 32 (Nov. 2)
| POS | NAME | SCORELINE |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Ben Roethlisberger | 25-37/340 YDS/6 TD/0 INT |
| WR | Antonio Brown | 11 REC/144 YDS/2 TD |
4) Green Bay Packers 55, Chicago Bears 14 (Nov. 9)
| POS | NAME | SCORELINE |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Aaron Rodgers | 18-27/315 YDS/6 TD/0 INT |
| WR | Jordy Nelson | 6 REC/152 YDS/2 TD |
5) Indianapolis Colts 49, Washington Redskins 27 (Nov. 30)
| POS | NAME | SCORELINE |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Andrew Luck | 19-27/370 YDS/5 TD/1 INT |
| WR | Donte Moncrief | 3 REC/134 YDS/2 TD |
Aside from the Andrew Luck game, each of those blowouts saw No. 1 receivers shine (Luck's top option, T.Y. Hilton, had five catches for 62 yards and a score in the blowout win over the Redskins.)
So what does this all mean? Basically, if your quarterback has a sensational game, there's a great chance his top receiver will rack up great stats, too.
Here’s what you should focus on when deciding which QB/WR combo to use:
Who’s covering the No. 1 WR? It’s important to know how the opposing team plans on covering the No. 1 target. In some cases, QBs will actually ignore No. 1 receivers facing elite defensive backs or double teams and spread the ball around. Remember, though, that some, like Beckham, Calvin Johnson and others, regularly excel no matter who is covering them.
What is the game total? The higher the total, the greater the expectation that the game will feature plenty of scoring. These games are breeding grounds for lethal QB/WR combos, since they tend to feature more porous defensive play and a faster pace. And don’t be afraid of the potential for a blowout, since star players still tend to hit their marks in those games.
How balanced is the offense? Wide receivers have plenty to deal with when it comes to generating production - much of it stemming from their own team. Run-heavy offenses, or offenses featuring good rushing quarterbacks, tend to rely on the pass less. Additionally, teams with multiple elite receiving targets can make selecting the proper wide receiver difficult.
Another question DFS players might ask themselves, depending on the matchup, is whether it might be worth considering two receivers - or a receiver and a tight end - from the same team as their quarterback. This tactic is generally frowned upon, since in most cases the stats of that secondary receiver won’t measure up to a player from another team that could be had for a lower or comparable price.
The one exception would be in the case where a team had a solid second receiving option available for a reasonable salary in a game that was expected to be high-scoring. In this case, you could take the plunge and make it a three-man combo. But you run several risks, chief among them the possibility that the team in question falls flat on offense - leaving you with no chance of reaching the money.