Fantasy: Best value picks based on ADP

One of the biggest keys to success in fantasy drafts is finding value.

We live in a post-sleeper age where everyone has access to the same player rankings and breakout predictions. Groupthink among fantasy experts and owners alike is pervasive and the result is the "popular sleeper." It's an oxymoron, but it's also a very real phenomenon. Don't believe it? Draft Lions running back Ameer Abdullah this year and watch as your leaguemates grumble and cross him off their draft lists. They all want him.

Today's savviest owners allow their competitors to reach for these popular sleepers and instead focus their attention on the unheralded players who offer the highest potential return on investment. For whatever reason (often age or injury history), these players typically wait longer than they should to hear their names called in drafts.

Below, we identify 10 players who are being overlooked by many fantasy owners but who have a good chance to become every-week starters and difference-makers.

Average draft position (ADP) data courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator and based on 12-team leagues with standard scoring.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins

ADP: Mid-ninth round

Tannehill has one solid fantasy season on his resume, a top-10 finish in 2014. Was it a fluke or is it a sign of things to come for the young Dolphins passer? Tannehill is entering his second season in offensive coordinator Bill Lazor's scheme, which should give him a level of comfort that he seemed to lack a year ago. Lazor comes from the Chip Kelly coaching tree, and his up-tempo offense can generate yards and points just like his former team in Philadelphia. To aid in Tannehill's development, Miami went out and loaded up his arsenal, adding tight end Jordan Cameron and receivers Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings. The Dolphins also used their first-round pick on the very talented DeVante Parker. Tannehill improved his numbers in each of his first three seasons, and there's no reason to think he won't top his 4,045-yard, 27-touchdown line from a year ago. He's currently the 13th quarterback going off the board, which will allow you to stock up at every position and then secure your QB1 in the ninth round or later.

Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals

ADP: Late 11th round

Listen to Carson Palmer talk and you'll hear a player who's on a mission to reach the top of the mountain while he still has time to do it. And the 2015 Cardinals might give the 35-year-old former first overall pick the best chance of his career to earn a Super Bowl ring. They boast an excellent offensive line, a stable of receivers with a nice blend of veteran savvy and youthful flash, and a running back that has proven to be dynamic when healthy. Speaking of health, fantasy owners shouldn't get too caught up on Palmer's twice surgically repaired knee. All the reports are positive and it's not like Palmer was especially mobile even before the injury. Palmer threw for 1,626 yards, 11 touchdowns, and three interceptions in six games last season. If he stayed healthy for all 16 games and maintained that pace, he would have produced roughly 4,300 yards, 30 touchdowns, and eight picks - or about the same number of fantasy points as Matt Ryan. You can draft Palmer five rounds later than Ryan this year. That value is hard to pass up.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots

ADP: Late fifth round

Le'Veon Bell will miss the first two games of the season due to suspension, yet many fantasy analysts argue he should still be the first overall pick. Blount will miss one game (stemming from the same incident, no less) and he's falling all the way to the fifth round, where he's coming off the board as the 28th running back on average. That just doesn't make any sense. Granted, there's a large gulf in talent between Bell and Blount, but it's a mistake to discount what Blount can do in the Patriots' potent offense. Remember, Blount joined the Patriots late in the 2014 season and was eased into the mix. This season, with Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley both gone, Blount projects as a workhorse. James White will likely handle passing-down work, but there's no reason to believe Blount won't hold off the less-talented Jonas Gray (who, with a 12th-round ADP, also offers heaps of potential value) and score double-digit touchdowns as the Patriots' hammer back. High-end RB2 numbers are easily within reach at an RB3 price.

David Cobb, RB, Titans

ADP: Mid-ninth round

Bishop Sankey just isn't very good and Cobb, if nothing else, might be. It sounds like Titans coaches are beginning to realize this. Don't expect flash from the rookie. That's not what he's about. Cobb is simply a big, strong, competent runner who can hit the hole with power and churn out yards. Still not convinced? Consider that mobile quarterbacks like Marcus Mariota typically have a positive effect on the production of the running backs who line up behind them, and the Titans have the makings of a very good offensive line if the unit finally gels. Ponder using a late-round pick on a rookie running back many fantasy owners are overlooking.

Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers

ADP: Late ninth round

Woodhead is one year removed from racking up 1,034 total yards, eight touchdowns, and a stunning 76 receptions for the Chargers. A broken leg cost him most of the 2014 season and made fantasy owners forget how valuable he was for Philip Rivers. Reports out of training camp suggest first-rounder Melvin Gordon isn't quite ready for prime time and Gordon's performance in the preseason opener seemed to provide evidence of those claims. Woodhead was already set to handle third-down work and may end up earning even more snaps as the rookie learns how to pass protect at the pro level. Woodhead finished as the RB12 in PPR leagues during that 2013 campaign, and the RB20 in standard scoring leagues. You would be a fool to pass that potential up at his current ADP.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals

ADP: Mid-eigth round

Fitzgerald's ADP has been disproportionately depressed by two factors: his age (31) and his frequently low production over the past several seasons. There's no denying that receivers on the wrong side of 30 typically show signs of decline, but technicians like Fitzgerald can produce until age 35 and beyond. Look at Reggie Wayne, for instance. With Bruce Arians directing the Colts' offense in 2012, Wayne caught 106 passes for 1,355 yards and five touchdowns. Wayne was 34 years old. As for Fitzgerald's disappointing stats over the past few seasons, that can be chocked up to subpar quarterback play. In the five games before Carson Palmer tore his ACL last season, Fitzgerald averaged about 90 yards receiving and half a touchdown. Palmer is healthy again and Fitzgerald is a strong bet to resume a similar pace, especially with Michael Floyd sidelined.

Eddie Royal, WR, Bears

ADP: Late 11th round

Royal outperformed his ADP in each of the last two seasons with the Chargers, scoring seven and eight touchdowns, respectively. With Bears rookie Kevin White's season in jeopardy, Royal finds himself in an every-down role and is again a strong bet to provide savvy owners with a large return on investment. Royal has reportedly enjoyed a strong training camp (offensive coordinator Adam Gase compared him to Wes Welker) and Jay Cutler should quickly learn to look for him whenever he needs an outlet. The Bears might not be very good in real-life terms, but that could actually be a boon for Royal's fantasy value. Jay Cutler will have to sling it. Garbage-time points count the same as every other point!

Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers

ADP: Mid-10th round

Boldin is a forgotten man every year in fantasy drafts. Since arriving in San Francisco, he's averaged 84 catches, 1,120 yards, and six touchdowns per season and yet owners seem scared to draft him. By all accounts, Boldin's situation should be even better in 2015. The 49ers lost several impact players on their once stout defense, which could turn an offense that used to be content grinding out games into a unit that needs to air it out to outscore opponents. The team added speedster Torrey Smith in free agency, a move that should stretch defenses and create more room for Boldin to work underneath. The 34-year-old has built a strong rapport with Colin Kaepernick and remains the club's top option in the passing game. Draft Boldin with confidence in the later rounds and lock him in as a WR3.

Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals

ADP: Early 12th round

Fantasy analysts predicted a breakout for the Bengals' 2013 first-round pick last season. It didn't happen. Instead, Eifert suffered a season-ending injury just minutes into the season. Fast-forward one year, and Eifert is being overlooked by far too many owners. Jermaine Gresham is gone and Eifert is fully healthy and reportedly dominating at training camp. The path is clear for the breakout to finally arrive, yet Owen Daniels is being drafted ahead of Eifert in many leagues. Huh? Maybe it's the Andy Dalton effect. There's no denying many football fans find Dalton tremendously uninspiring, but there's also no denying the Bengals have the makings of a very potent offense and Eifert has big-time upside. If Travis Kelce is a fifth-round fantasy pick with Alex Smith as his quarterback, the similarly talented Eifert should be drafted much earlier than the 12th round despite Dalton. It's a great year to draft your tight end late.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings

ADP: Mid-12th round

Rudolph is in a similar position to the aforementioned Eifert. He didn't suffer a season-ending injury in 2014, but he appeared in only nine games due to sports hernia surgery and was clearly hobbled when on the field. Rudolph has TE1 upside as a red-zone threat in an ascending Vikings offense, but his failure to stay healthy for an extended stretch in his four-year career seems to have scared most owners off. With an ADP that has him coming off the board as the 15th tight end, Rudolph is a major value. He's the perfect player to target for owners who prefer to load up on early-round running backs and wide receivers and platoon or stream tight ends.