Pac-12 Preview: Expect another dramatic year from the South

South Preview

The Pac-12 South was arguably the most exciting division in college football last season, producing two game-winning Hail Mary touchdown passes, another game-winning touchdown pass with eight seconds remaining, and two more games in doubt until missed field goals as time expired.

The South was also the most competitive division in college football, going 4-1 in bowl games and placing five teams in the final Associated Press poll. A vastly improved Colorado team went winless in conference play, but still took UCLA to double overtime and lost by four to Utah.

Now, with that depth intact and plenty more drama ahead, the question is whether the Pac-12 South can produce a national championship contender without completely cannibalizing itself.

Short answer: almost certainly not, given each team's weaknesses.

With a loaded defense and settled offensive line, UCLA would be in position to live up to last season’s hype if quarterback Brett Hundley was returning. But with Hundley off to the NFL, the Bruins are left with true freshman Josh Rosen or redshirt junior Jerry Neuheisel to navigate a treacherous schedule that includes road games at Arizona, Stanford, Utah, and USC.

Instead, crosstown rival USC are the pick to win their first South crown. Cody Kessler delivered 3,826 passing yards and 39 touchdowns against five interceptions in his first go-round operating Steve Sarkisian’s up-tempo offense. With the best offensive line in the conference, viable targets in JuJu Smith and Adoree Jackson, and a talented crop of running backs, Kessler is a top candidate to keep the Heisman Trophy on the West Coast.

The pass rush must perk up, and do-everything lineman Leonard Williams simply cannot be replaced. However, improved depth - based on NCAA-imposed scholarship reductions no longer being in play and a glut of top-line talent - could see the Trojans turn last season’s late losses that cost them the South into a berth in the Pac-12 title game.

Arizona State is USC’s most dangerous challenger, hosting the Trojans with memories of Mike Bercovici’s game-winning touchdown at the Coliseum still fresh in everyone’s minds. D.J. Foster is moving from running back to wide receiver in an attempt to offset the loss of Jaelen Strong, but will still be featured out of the backfield on screen passes and fly sweeps.

Utah’s passing game will again be a hit-or-miss proposition, offset by a heavy dose of running back Devontae Booker. Booker averaged 30.1 touches per game after claiming the starting job and will again see a monstrous workload as the Utes rely on a punishing defense and elite special teams.

As for the team that actually won the South last season, Arizona needed too many lucky breaks to do so and were exposed in the postseason. The tandem of quarterback Anu Solomon and running back Nick Wilson will pile on the points, but the defense is still not at a championship level despite the presence of stat-stuffing linebacker Scooby Wright.

The Buffaloes should again be feisty, and upset opportunities in home games against Arizona and USC could end up swinging the division race. However, a bowl game seems unlikely even with veteran quarterback Sefo Liufau and former USF coach Jim Leavitt now overseeing the defense.

North Preview

The North offers more clarity, as Oregon and Stanford will again jockey for the division title.

Marcus Mariota won the Ducks’ first-ever Heisman, but that first-ever national championship remained just out of reach as Ohio State hammered Oregon 42-20 in the inaugural College Football Playoff title game.

Mariota’s departure has lowered expectations for the Ducks, but a dynamic supporting cast should make life easier for potential successors Jeff Lockie or Eastern Washington graduate transfer Vernon Adams. After all, practically anybody could have success handing the ball off to stud sophomore running back Royce Freeman, and throwing screens or play-action passes to the likes of versatile weapon Byron Marshall.

Stanford salvaged a disappointing season by getting back to basics in a three-game winning streak, averaging 45.6 rushes per game and allowing quarterback Kevin Hogan to flourish as an efficient game manager.

Whether the defense can overcome the losses of stalwart defensive end Henry Anderson and linebacker A.J. Tarpley before a critical Week 3 trip to USC, followed by back-to-back October home games against Arizona and UCLA will determine whether the Cardinal is in position to reclaim the North from Oregon.

Armed with an explosive offense led by junior quarterback Jared Goff, California is in prime position to reach its first bowl game under third-year coach Sonny Dykes. If a horrific defense that allowed 39.8 points and 367 passing yards per game last season can develop into one that's merely mediocre, the Golden Bears could challenge for one of the top two spots in the North.

Washington State will be in a similar position as Cal: needing the defense to catch up to Mike Leach’s always prolific Air Raid spread passing attack to make the postseason.

And at the bottom of the North, Washington and Oregon State will be trying to lay the foundation for a better future. The Beavers swap out Mike Reilly’s pro-style schemes for a spread offense under new coach Gary Andersen, while the Huskies have to replace first-round draft picks Danny Shelton, Shaq Thompson, and Marcus Peters on defense.

Projected Final Standings

Pac-12 South

1. USC
2. Arizona State
3. UCLA
4. Utah
5. Arizona
6. Colorado

Pac-12 North

1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. California
4. Washington State
5. Oregon State
6. Washington

Pac-12 championship: Oregon over USC