Fantasy: 10 risky picks that could make or break your season
Drafting a fantasy team is like managing a stock portfolio. Owners take calculated risks and hope their assets outperform expectations.
The savviest owners understand risk management and build a roster with a combination of known, reliable commodities and high-risk, high-reward players with the potential to produce a massive return on investment. This second group typically includes rookies, players returning from injury, and players in vastly different situations than they were the year prior.
Below we take a close look at 10 players whose fantasy outlook is among the most volatile in football. If these players hit, they could prove to be league-winners. If they miss, they could take their owners' hopes of a championship run with them.
Average draft position (ADP) data courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and based on 12-team leagues with standard scoring.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins
There's a lot to like about Tannehill this year. Coming off a season in which he threw for over 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions, Tannehill watched his Dolphins add Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, and Jordan Cameron to form what's suddenly a very impressive stable of receiving threats. Nevertheless, there are serious causes for concern about Tannehill's fantasy outlook bubbling just under the surface. First, there are the lingering questions about his inability to throw an accurate deep ball. The Dolphins' offensive line remains a major question mark, too, leaving Tannehill at an elevated risk of injury. Finally, there's Joe Philbin, the head coach sitting firmly atop most preseason hot-seat lists. If the Dolphins stumble out of the gate amid the highest expectations they've faced in a decade, it wouldn't be a shock to see Philbin relieved of his duties. If that happens, the Dolphins could spiral out of control and take Tannehill's fantasy production down with them.
Risk factor: ☣☣
ADP: Late 10th round
Sam Bradford, QB, Eagles
Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez combined to produce about the same number of fantasy points as Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, and Jay Cutler last season. Neither Foles nor Sanchez is very good at football. In other words, the Eagles' potent offense is a potential fantasy goldmine for an above-average passer. Bradford is entering his sixth season in the NFL, but we still don't have a great read on him. Is he actually any good? His rookie season certainly suggested he can be, but injuries have completely derailed his career. Coming off back-to-back ACL tears, Bradford is one of the biggest question marks in football. If Bradford is healthy and hasn't lost his gunslinger's mentality, he could explode under Chip Kelly's tutelage. If he stutters out of the gate (or can't get healthy enough to make it to the gate in the first place), Sanchez could be handed the reins.
Risk factor: ☣☣☣☣
ADP: Late 10th round
Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders
Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie says the only obstacle between Murray and a featured role is himself, suggesting the Raiders are a little annoyed with their third-year tailback's inability to stay healthy and play with consistency. The Raiders have little choice but to ride Murray; they desperately need flash in the backfield and Murray is the only player on the roster capable of providing it. We've seen only a tiny sample of Murray in the pros, but his four-carry, 112-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 12 proved he's capable of big things. New Raiders offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave coached Adrian Peterson during his 2,000-yard campaign and knows how to extract maximum value from a tailback, but the Raiders' offense could be among the NFL's worst. Questions about Murray's durability and how many scoring chances he'll get make him a risky pick.
Risk factor: ☣☣☣
ADP: Early 4th round
Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals
The Cardinals didn't exactly make upgrading their running back depth a priority this offseason, suggesting they still have faith that the oft-injured Ellington can be a reliable feature back. Fantasy owners are forgiven for not sharing that faith. Ellington, a popular breakout candidate last year, battled injuries all season and posted disappointing yardage and touchdown totals. Ellington is clearly a dynamic talent when healthy, but it may be foolhardy to expect him to be more than a complementary player. The Cardinals have the makings of a very good offensive line and Carson Palmer's return under center will open things up for the rushing attack, so Ellington's upside will lead some owners to overlook the risk. Dip your toes into this water if you dare, but be sure to have a solid backup plan.
Risk factor: ☣☣☣
ADP: Late 4th round
Todd Gurley, RB, Rams
No one doubts Gurley's immense upside. If the rookie hits, he could be among the best running backs in the league. The problem with Gurley is we just don't know how much he'll play as a rookie. He'll be 10 months removed from a torn ACL when the regular season begins, and the Rams seem to be inclined to take things very slowly with their prized prospect. If Gurley gets up to speed quickly and plays like he did in college, he'll be an RB1 and deliver a tremendous return on investment. On the other hand, if he shows signs of his injury and remains behind Tre Mason on the depth chart for the first few months of the season, he'll be a waste of a fourth-round pick.
Risk factor: ☣☣☣☣☣
ADP: Late 4th round
Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
It's remarkable how frequently a 21-year-old Evans made defensive backs look like children in his rookie season. Evans maximized his rare size and athletic ability to the tune of more than 1,000 yards receiving and 12 touchdowns. The consensus among fantasy prognosticators is Evans will put up similar numbers this year, but it's worth noting that two factors suggest it's unlikely. The first is simple regression. More than 40 percent of Evans' 2014 fantasy points came from touchdowns, the most unpredictable statistic in football. With Vincent Jackson healthy again and likely to take back a piece of the pie, Evans will be hard-pressed to cross the stripe a dozen times again. The second factor is Jameis Winston. Though it's hard to call Winston a downgrade on the Josh McCown/Mike Glennon combination that threw to Evans last season, it's very rare for a rookie quarterback to support a WR1 in fantasy.
Risk factor: ☣☣
ADP: Early 3rd round
Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers
Update: Bryant is facing a four-game suspension for a substance abuse violation.
With a 549-yard, eight-touchdown rookie campaign in the rear-view mirror and glowing reports about his progress at offseason workouts, it's easy to see why Bryant's ADP has skyrocketed as the season approaches. Tap the breaks a little. Recent comments from Ben Roethlisberger suggest Markus Wheaton remains ahead of Bryant on the Steelers' depth chart. Can fantasy owners trust that Bryant's talent will win out and he'll carve out enough targets (in an offense that must first feed Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell) to be more than a boom-or-bust WR3? Perhaps, but is it really worth taking a shot on Bryant when much safer options like Julian Edelman, Brandon Marshall, Jeremy Maclin, and Vincent Jackson are often available a full round later?
Risk factor: ☣☣☣
ADP: Early 5th round
Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills
What's the one thing that can make a can't-miss receiving prospect miss? Bad quarterback play. In Buffalo, describing the quarterbacks as "bad" might be generous. Whether it's Matt Cassel, EJ Manuel, or Tyrod Taylor under center, Watkins may find that the majority of passes sent his way are of the uncatchable variety - if he actually sees targets, that is. The Bills' coaches have made it clear they plan to run the ball and then run it some more. With Percy Harvin and Charles Clay also in town, Bills receivers may be grasping for scraps in the passing game. That's a recipe for a fantasy nightmare.
Risk factor: ☣☣☣☣
ADP: Mid-5th round
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks
Graham is being drafted in the third round, suggesting owners believe he'll maintain the fantasy value he had in New Orleans. Don't count on it. The Saints were one of the NFL's most pass-heavy offenses over the past three seasons, while the Seahawks were at the opposite end of the spectrum. During that stretch, the Saints threw 677 more passes than the Seahawks, or about 225 more chances per season for Graham to have a pass sent his way. The Seahawks will feature Graham in their offense (especially in the red zone), but it would be foolish to expect them to abandon the offensive model that has delivered them to consecutive Super Bowls and suddenly start slinging the ball all over the field. Graham will be asked to block far more in Seattle than he ever did in New Orleans. His stats could take a massive hit.
Risk factor: ☣☣☣
ADP: Mid-3rd round
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
Travis Kelce paid dividends as a tight end sleeper in 2014, but owners who want him on their roster this year will have to invest a premium draft pick to acquire his services. Do you really want to spend your valuable draft capital on a tight end whose production is wholly reliant on Alex Smith, a passer who failed to throw a single touchdown pass to his wide receivers last season? Kelce could certainly surpass his 862 yards and five touchdowns from a season ago, but at his draft price, he'll be expected to produce at a rate just below Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham. Alex Smith is no Tom Brady or Drew Brees.
Risk factor: ☣☣
ADP: Mid-5th round