How to bet the 147th Belmont Stakes
The 147th running of the Belmont Stakes goes Saturday at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y.
Since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978, 13 horses entered the Belmont Stakes with a chance to make history, but each failed. American Pharoah will be the latest horse to take a shot at immortality.
Related: 3 things you need to know about American Pharoah's quest for the Triple Crown
Here's a betting guide to Saturday's race.
Triple Crown or bust
The Triple Crown hopeful arrives at Belmont having won six consecutive races. However, unlike each of the 11 Triple Crown winners, American Pharoah arrived having never run at Belmont.
From a betting perspective, oddsmakers would be happy to take in action on the favorite. No book has been more aggressive in its pricing of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner than the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, which opened American Pharoah as a 21-20 favorite.
"Just booking those things through the years, you always take the 'make 'em beat you' (approach)," Superbook oddsmaker Ed Salmons told Marcus DiNitto of Sporting News. "That's the way I always try to book make and make odds, especially on something that’s seemingly so wide open."
Every bettor that walks up to the betting window Saturday needs to ask themselves one question above all else: Are you with American Pharoah, or against him?
American Pharoah will surely go off at well short of even money, so betting the colt along with other horses to win will cut heavily into a bettor's profit margins.
The betting favorite has lost the last nine Belmont Stakes.
Post 5
In a race that runs a mile-and-a-half, post position won't have a major impact on the outcome, but much was made of American Pharoah landing the No. 5 post position for the Belmont Stakes.
The No. 5 post has produced 13 winners at Belmont - tied for second most. Among them, 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew. But recent history hasn't been so kind to horses running out of lane 5. The last winner was Hansel way back in 1991.
"I've always liked the five. It's a number I always do well with," trainer Bob Baffert told reporters after the post draw. "More important is the horse is doing well."
The first post position has produced the most winners (23). That's where Mubtaahij will run out of at 17-1 odds.
| Post | Winners | Horse | Morning-line odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | Mubtaahij | 17-1 |
| 2 | 11 | Tale of Verve | 21-1 |
| 3 | 13 | Madefromlucky | 14-1 |
| 4 | 9 | Frammento | 24-1 |
| 5 | 13 | American Pharoah | 2-5 |
| 6 | 7 | Frosted | 6-1 |
| 7 | 11 | Keen Ice | 21-1 |
| 8 | 5 | Materiality | 7-1 |
Since the post positions were announced, 60 percent of all action on William Hill's "Yes/No" proposition as to whether or not American Pharoah will win Saturday's race has been on the "No." New York Racing Association morning-line oddsmaker Eric Donovan agrees.
"I didn't think he faced the strongest of fields, and circumstances certainly helped him out in the Preakness," Donovan told David Purdum of ESPN. "And I think circumstances helped him out in the Derby, too. That's why, if I'm betting the race, I'm betting against him."
The Field
Santa Anita Park oddsmaker Jon White predicted American Pharoah would win the Kentucky Derby back in May, and he's predicting victory for the colt once again.
"Of the seven horses entered against American Pharoah in the Belmont, he already has defeated each by 3 1/4 lengths or more," White wrote in an article for The Courier-Journal.
White goes on to note that two of American Pharoah's biggest threats for claiming the final jewel of the Triple Crown - Firing Line and Dortmund - are not running in the Belmont.
Even so, there remain some intriguing options to contend with.
Here's a look at three of the horses with the best chance at spoiling American Pharoah's shot at history.
Frosted
Morning-line odds: 6-1
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Post position: 6
A half-brother of last year's Belmont winner, Tonalist, Frosted was 14th out of 18 horses in the Kentucky Derby after three-quarters of a mile before closing strong to finish fourth. The colt finished second at Belmont as a two-year-old.
Materiality
Morning-line odds: 7-1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John R. Velazquez
Post position: 8
After a slow start to the Kentucky Derby, Materiality managed a sixth-place finish. Getting shuffled back early was the main issue, and a smaller field at Belmont should help negate that issue. That was one of only four career starts for the lightly-raced colt.
Mubtaahij
Morning-line odds: 17-1
Trainer: Mike de Kock
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Post position: 1
Mubtaahij finished a disappointing eighth at the Kentucky Derby after talking a lot of money at the windows. The colt closed hard, but met a lot of traffic en route to the finish line. That won't likely be an issue Saturday.