The saga of the Big 4 nears its inevitable end
It'll go down in history. They'll talk about it for decades. They'll coin it: "The End of the Big Four." It'll be marketable. They'll sell magazines, books, movies. They'll cast A-list actors to rhapsodize the 2008 Wimbledon final. Tennis aficionados will greedily eat it up, but it'll pale in comparison to their memories. It'll fill the void temporarily. When the dust settles, they'll remember it actually ended, and that there will never be anything like it again.
The reign of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray is spiraling to an end. It's inevitable. The Big Four has its days numbered, and fans have no choice but to sit back and make the most of it.
That's not to say there isn't exceptional tennis left to play. Djokovic is relishing in his prime as the only player among the four not suffering from past injuries. With the French Open underway, the world No. 1 is slated to complete his career Grand Slam and informally suggest he'll be the last man standing after the Big Four collapse.
Before the Serbian can claim that status, though, Nadal, a nine-time Roland Garros champion, stands in his way. But Nadal can write his own history - by losing the French Open for the first time since 2010, or by winning the tournament for the sixth time in a row.
The injury-prone Spaniard is still considered a favorite despite failing to win a European clay court tune-up. The "King of Clay" reached the Madrid Open final, but lost in straight sets to world No. 3 Murray. The defeat dropped Nadal to seventh on the planet, and outside the top five for the first time since 2005. If unsuccessful in Paris, Nadal will go a full year without a Grand Slam win, which hasn't happened since 2004.
A similar reality hits harder for Federer. The man with the most Grand Slam titles (17) hasn't claimed a major since Wimbledon 2012. He's won three titles in 2015 (Brisbane, Dubai, and Istanbul), but was upset in the third round of the Australian Open by unseeded Andreas Seppi.
Having never dominated on clay (Federer has only won the French Open once), his likelihood of winning at Roland Garros is slim. If the world No. 2 were to capture a Slam this year, his chances are better at Wimbledon (seven-time champion) or the US Open (five-time champion).
The same goes for Murray - the lowliest of the four with only two Slams and Olympic gold to his name. The Scot won his first clay-court tourney coming into Paris, but is drawn in Djokovic's half, where they're expected to meet in the semis. Nole has the upper hand (18-8), winning seven in a row and 10 of their last 11. Murray, no matter what he does, it seems, will always be the poor man's Djokovic.
The Shift
Men's tennis is emerging with hungry, young up-and-comers ready to draw blood. Some are landing punches, earning their first career wins over men they grew up idolizing.
Australia's Nick Kyrgios recently upset Federer in the second round of the Madrid Open. The 20-year-old was victorious after three tiebreakers, forcing the Swiss to admit he "couldn’t return (Kyrgios') first serve."
Early upsets are proving the next generation is preparing to take over. The quartet can't dominate forever and the landscape of men's tennis is evolving. The most noticeable shift occurred last summer at the US Open, when the Big Four failed to reach the final.
Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori, two non-majors winners, battled under the Arthur Ashe lights, with Cilic winning his first Grand Slam title in straight sets. The matchup was deserving - the finalists defeated Federer and Djokovic in the semis - but tennis fans needed a moment to readjust their eyes after watching one of Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal play in 38 straight Grand Slam finals (two of them facing each other 17 times) dating back to 2005.
Some described the Cilic-Nishikori final as a turning point in the Open Era. Some said it was merely a blip, others a complete anomaly. Federer defended himself, and claimed the Big Four aren't conceding just yet.
"It's not because (the Big Four) didn't play well that we maybe dropped a bit," Federer said in January. "We have had some injuries. … It's still a bit early to say. We'll see again what's going to happen this year."
If the Big Four make a comeback in 2015 - Djokovic won the Aussie Open, and is expected to win in Paris, with Federer quietly seeded second - this debate will be shelved until further notice. In fact, if Djokovic completes a calendar-year Grand Slam, he'll rule as the Big One. The future is unpredictable.
The crystal ball will predict Djokovic leading the tour for the next few years, Nadal and Murray each winning one or two more Slams at best, and Federer winning one final major before declaring retirement. That will be their future.
The Big Four have championed 41 Grand Slams, 10 World Tour Finals, and two Olympic Games. Together they've dominated the tennis scene for over a decade, and written a remarkable chapter of tennis history.
But history teaches us that empires crumble. The Big Four is no exception, and individually, they will go down swinging.