Scouting Report: Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona

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Expectations are a strange thing. When they start low, a few strengths can make for a run up draft boards. When they start high, it's a few slights that can slide you down.

Stanley Johnson's draft stock hasn't exactly been volatile, but it seems odd that the No. 6 prospect in the 2014 recruiting class and a presumed top-five pick had a quality freshman season and is no longer quite at that lofty perch. It doesn't seem that teams don't view him as a quality player - he may have the safest floor among all wings, and he's a sure lottery pick - but his upside isn't as substantial as once believed. Given the quality at the top of this draft, it's hard to fault teams for taking a higher-expected value gamble early.

Relevant Background

Scouting Report

Strengths: Another reason Johnson may have slid some is that his biggest attributes aren't skill-based. He's strong, physical, and his body is ready for the rigors of the NBA. He's also said to be hyper-competitive, and while his motor occasionally waned at Arizona, it's largely expected he'll be an impact defender at the next level. If his 3-point stroke is legitimate - he shot far better than expected with a more compact and efficient release - there's appreciable 3-and-D potential. That's not to undersell his offensive game, which includes a nose for getting to the rim.

Weaknesses: It's when Johnson gets to the rim that issues arise, as he doesn't finish well, shooting 40 percent in the paint. That's an atrocious mark that's buoyed some by his ability to draw fouls, but there's concern he's not a great decision maker and is too right-hand dependent on the drive. He also failed to test well athletically, and teams would've preferred his defensive potential be about more than intangibles and attitude.

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What to Expect on Draft Day

Despite his claim that he's "the best player in the draft," Johnson must know teams don't see it that way. He really toiled with the decision to declare for the draft, in part because he wanted to win a national championship, but also because his stock was slightly lower than hoped. His range is likely to begin with the Denver Nuggets, who could use his attitude as they navigate a culture change, at No. 7, and while it's conceivable he slides into the later part of the lottery, the Miami Heat are a nice fit at No. 10.