Fantasy: Tulowitzki still has top 3 upside as a late first-round pick
With Opening Day just around the corner, theScore's MLB editors - Jonah Birenbaum, Dan Toman, Greg Warren and Brandon Wile - break down everything you need to know to become a fantasy champion in 2015. Check out all of theScore's fantasy content for the upcoming season here.
Troy Tulowitzki is a walking fantasy caveat: he's cursed with the ability to win or lose your league, depending on how many games he plays. He's an elite option at a weak position; the biggest risk in the safest round.
All of which is to say he'll probably be the most polarizing first-rounder of the draft season.
This year's top 8-10 picks are littered with first basemen and outfielders, and it wouldn't be criminal to pass on the Colorado Rockies shortstop for a 30-homer, 100-RBI slugger. But Tulowitzki's elite upside will make for a difficult decision towards the back half of the first round: Gamble on his health, or opt for a proven contributor at a deeper position?
Top shortstop by a Rocky Mountain mile
Picking Tulowitzki ahead of players like Jose Abreu, Edwin Encarnacion, or some of the top starting pitchers is a risky move on draft day, but the potential payoff could win you a fantasy title.
Consider the gap that exists between Tulowitzki and other shortstops when it comes to four of the top five fantasy categories. Since 2008, Tulowitzki is the only shortstop to hit at least .300 with 25 home runs, 75 RBIs and 70 runs scored in a season - and he's accomplished it three times (2010, 2011, 2013).
His 111 homers since 2010 are 19 more than the next closest shortstop (J.J. Hardy), but in 159 fewer games, and he's the only qualified player at the position to hit at least .300 during the last three seasons. Tulowitzki doesn't run, but his combination of elite power and high average is extremely rare at short. That's arguably top-3 overall value disguised as a late-round pick.
Compare that with the depth at first base and the outfield, two positions that include up to 10 potential first-round options. There were nine first basemen in 2014 who hit at least 25 homers and drove in 90 runs, and eight outfielders who produced a .280-20-75 statline. That's not to say Hunter Pence and Andrew McCutchen are interchangeable, but no other shortstop in baseball possesses Tulowitzki's Triple Crown potential, and that sort of discrepancy lends itself to a significant advantage in fantasy.
No good if he doesn't play
Tulowitzki's medical history is as prolific as the stats on the back of his baseball card: he's missed an average of 71 games per year over the last three seasons, and exceeded 140 games only once since 2010.
It's difficult to reward that lack of durability in the first round of the draft, but his projections based on 600 plate appearances are just as hard to overlook.
If you're looking for a glass half-full pitch, here it is: Tulowitzki thinks last summer's hip surgery helped correct his susceptibility to lower-body injuries. That's encouraging context for an oft-injured player who posted a career-high walk rate and isolated power percentage in 2014.
Don't reach for Tulowitzki on draft day, because you should no longer expect him to carry your team. But if he falls into your lap, don't hesitate to pick him over a starting pitcher or an option at a deeper position.
Tulowitzki's still got the right mix of upside and positional dominance that can win you a fantasy title this summer.