Free Agency Forecast: Predicting where the top 10 defensive free agents will sign
Free agency is just ahead of us. Let's stare into the crystal ball and project where this year's top defensive talents will sign.
10. Terrance Knighton
The Denver Broncos have more free agents than most teams and not enough money under the salary cap to bring them all back. Though they'd probably love to re-sign Knighton at a team-friendly deal, the man known as "Pot Roast" can find more money elsewhere. The Oakland Raiders will relish stealing him away from their AFC West rivals.
Prediction: Raiders on a two-year, $13-million deal ($6.5 million guaranteed)
9. Nick Fairley
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are rumored to be in the hunt for Ndamukong Suh, but it doesn't make sense for the team that just gave Gerald McCoy a seven-year, $98-million extension to give a similar contract to another defensive tackle. Fairley will come much cheaper and still allow the Buccaneers to boast a beastly interior defensive line.
Prediction: Buccaneers on a three-year, $12 million deal ($4 million guaranteed)
8. Brandon Graham
The Dallas Cowboys need to inject some life into their pass rush but probably won't be major players in free agency due to salary-cap concerns. Graham was very efficient in a situational pass-rushing role with the Philadelphia Eagles and could prove to be a bargain in an expanded role with the Cowboys, who run a scheme that's better suited to his talents.
Prediction: Cowboys on a four-year, $23-million deal ($13 million guaranteed)
7. Byron Maxwell
Maxwell is a good player and perhaps a very good one. What he isn't is a true shutdown cornerback. Maxwell would be wise to sign with a team that won't ask him to lock down the opponent's top receiver on a weekly basis. He should also look for a similar scheme to the cover-3, man-press system he thrived in with the Seattle Seahawks. The Atlanta Falcons are the perfect fit, with Dan Quinn (Maxwell's coordinator in Seattle) at head coach, Desmond Trufant emerging as a stud at the other cornerback spot and enough cap space to fit in Maxwell as well as plug some other needs.
Prediction: Falcons on a four-year, $28-million deal ($16 million guaranteed)
6. Jason Worilds
Dick LeBeau is the new man in charge of the Tennessee Titans' defense and he's expected to bring in at least a few familiar faces from his time with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Worilds looks like a lock. He can slot in to LeBeau's scheme seamlessly and provide the Titans with some of the edge-rushing prowess they desperately lack.
Prediction: Titans on a four-year, $30-million deal ($16 million guaranteed)
5. Pernell McPhee
Indianapolis Colts head coach Chuck Pagano was the Baltimore Ravens' defensive coordinator the year the team drafted McPhee. The Colts need help throughout their defensive front seven but particularly coming off the edge. McPhee can provide that, but he's more than just an edge rusher. He can also line up with his hand in the dirt and even rush from the interior in subpackages. It won't be a surprise if the Colts overpay a little to get a player they see as a perfect fit.
Prediction: Colts on a five-year, $48-million deal ($20 million guaranteed)
4. Jerry Hughes
Hughes' value will be hard for teams to assess. The former first-round pick shed the bust label by posting consecutive seasons with double-digit sacks after his trade to the Bills, but questions remain about whether Hughes is a stud or if he simply benefited from playing next to the other studs on the Bills' line. Ultimately, Hughes would be wise to return to the situation where he flourished.
Prediction: Bills on a four-year, $36-million deal ($22 million guaranteed)
3. Greg Hardy
Still just 26 years old, Hardy is a difference-making pass rusher who carries major character red flags. He was arrested on domestic violence charges last May (charges that were dropped after the accuser couldn't be located) and sat out most of the season on the exempt list. Hardy's tentatively expected to resume play next season but any team signing him will have to feel comfortable he will stay out of trouble off the field. The Cincinnati Bengals love to go shopping for bargains with off-field issues and have a need at defensive end. Hardy checks all the boxes.
Prediction: Bengals on a three-year, $19-million deal ($11 million guaranteed)
2. Devin McCourty
Some analysts believe McCourty is the cog that makes the New England Patriots' secondary run as efficiently as it does, which is why it's puzzling the team seems prepared to let him walk. A long-term extension remains a possibility, but if McCourty hits the open market, he's likely to see offers well in excess of what the Patriots want to pay. Rangy free safeties are in vogue and McCourty has a good shot at topping the deal Jairus Byrd got from the New Orleans Saints a year ago. The Eagles have plenty of money to spend after parting with LeSean McCoy and should be viewed as the favorites to land McCourty.
Prediction: Eagles on a six-year, $52-million deal ($30 million guaranteed)
1. Ndamukong Suh
The best free agent to hit the open market since Peyton Manning, Suh should have no shortage of teams lining up to throw money at him. We'll learn a lot about what he values by where he chooses to sign. Will he go to the highest bidder or would he prefer to play for a contender? Is he willing to play in a new scheme or is he purely a 3-technique in a 4-3? Does he want the fame of playing in a major market or would he prefer to avoid the spotlight? The Miami Dolphins look like a great fit and there are whispers they plan to make a big offer. Don't be surprised when Suh takes his talents to South Beach.
Prediction: Dolphins on an eight-year, $118-million deal ($60 million guaranteed)