Serena at the Crossroads, Part I: The Aussie Open

Sometimes I wonder how Serena Williams manages to psych herself up for a match in the early rounds of a tournament. She knows that even if she wins nobody will celebrate or sing her praises, that she'll have simply done what was expected. Lose, though, and it'll be a crisis, an invitation for critics to question her character, doubt her focus and make sweeping proclamations about her future.

Williams dealt with a lot of that last year, when she held No. 1 wire-to-wire and won the U.S. Open and WTA Tour Finals, but flamed out in the Australian Open, the French Open and at Wimbledon. (It was her worst run of Grand Slams since 1998 - the first year she qualified to play them.) She won three more tournaments than any of her peers, but also lost as many matches as she did in 2012 and 2013 combined.

At the Tour Finals -  a microcosm of her inconsistent season - Williams was pasted 6-2, 6-0 in the round robin by Simona Halep, her most lopsided defeat in over 16 years. Four days later (in a final she wouldn't even have reached but for Halep's sportsmanlike sensibilities) she returned the favor, doling out a 6-3, 6-0 thumping to claim the year-end championship.

Two Serenas

It's hard to reconcile how dominant Williams looked at times last year with how out of sorts and ordinary she looked at others. It was a down year, if only by her ridiculous standards, and she's already stumbled a bit out of the gate in 2015 in typically weird fashion. There's only so much weight that can be attached to exhibition play, and jet lag was certainly a factor, but when a 33-year-old athlete complains about being so exhausted she can't get her body to move, it raises a few red flags.

So often Williams makes it seem like she can elevate her play to another stratosphere at will. But it can take a good kick in the pants for her to invoke that will, and lately Australia hasn't done it for her. She's made a habit of starting the season sluggishly, and hasn't won in Melbourne (or even advanced past the quarters) since 2010. On the eve of this year's Australian Open, a potential 19th Grand Slam - which would give her sole possession of second all-time - sits on the table. Will that be enough of a kick?

I'm unconvinced. She's got the rest of the season to prove whatever it is she has left to prove, and she has richer history at both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. Her five Aussie Open titles are already an Open Era record. There's a relative lack of urgency at play that could mean the difference between WIlliams collecting hardware and leaving empty-handed.

Her biggest hurdle, again, will likely be those early rounds. She tends to play her way into rhythm (and sometimes into shape) during tournaments, improving as the stakes ramp up. Historically, once she makes it past Week 1, she gathers steam in a hurry, becoming practically invincible. She's 22-3 in Grand Slam semifinals, 18-4 in Slam finals and was 7-0 in title matches even in her up-and-down 2014. She has a 15-match winning streak going against the woman currently chasing her for No. 1. The big moments aren't the ones she struggles with.

At the same time, it's going to get harder and harder for her to flip a switch and rocket into another gear, especially with a field as deep and level as in a generation. Eight different women played in Slam finals last year, the first time that's happened since 1977. 

I count at least seven women who have already announced themselves as credible contenders heading into Melbourne, with another handful of sneaky challengers (from up-and-comers like Garbine Muguruza to bounce-back candidates like Victoria Azarenka and even Williams' sister, Venus) lurking in the weeds.

Serena Williams may still be the odds-on favorite, but making it through the fortnight unscathed won't be a picnic.

Click here for part 2.