3 things you need to know about Cody Franson's salary arbitration hearing

The ask and the counter

During the NHL's salary arbitration process, arbitration eligible players ask for the moon while clubs counter with low-ball offers to their restricted free agent assets. The adversarial nature of the process is part of what makes it so unpleasant, and so rare. 

If the two sides don't settle, then eventually the arbitrator does the King Solomon thing, cuts the baby in half (as it were), and generally gives a binding award on a salary figure that falls somewhere between the two extremes presented by each side. 

In Cody Franson's case, the Maple Leafs have suggested that he's worth $2- million (which is exactly what Franson made last year). Franson's camp has suggested that he's worth $4.2-million, according to reports. 

Missed opportunity

Franson was arbitration eligible last summer, but declined to go through the process. It probably cost him a million dollars (or more) and most of training camp. 

Coming off of a career year during the lockout abbreviated campaign - Franson had managed 29 points, good for eighth among NHL defenseman in scoring - the B.C. born Franson had a stronger arbitration case a year ago, but declined to press the issue. 

The productive offensive defenseman skipped training camp while contract negotiations were ongoing and his performance fizzled. During the most recent NHL campaign, Franson's production atrophied as he managed just 33 points, good for 42nd in scoring among NHL defenders, and his on-ice goal differential tumbled from +4 in 2013, to -20 in 2013-14. 

Franson's negotiating history is inadmissible and won't play a role in his arbitration hearing, but you'd imagine his camp has to be kicking themselves.  

Comparables

Only group 2 restricted free agents can serve as "comparable players" in the salary arbitration process. 

If the Maple Leafs are looking at a $2-million valuation of Franson, then they would seem to be alleging that the following players are comparable: 

• Vancouver Canucks D Chris Tanev (one-year, $2-million AAV)
• Calgary Flames D T.J. Brodie (two-years, $2.15-million AAV) 
• Ottawa Senators D Patrick Wiercioch (three-years, $2-million AAV)
• New York Islanders D Calvin de Haan (three-years, $1.966-million AAV)
• Detroit Red Wings D Jakub Kindl (four-years, 2.4-million AAV).

There's a player or two on that list who a rational actor definitely wouldn't trade straight up for Franson (namely Brodie), but we're evaluating a case, not the players. 

Taking those five comparable players and Franson, let's go from the season before their current contracts kicked in, and take a quick look at how their career games played, career point production, and average time on ice (in the season before their current deal kicked in) compared with Franson:

Based on Franson's service time and production, it seems probable that he's not a $2-million asset.

So how does his resume stack up with players that Franson's camp is likely alleging are comparable? We'll use the following five names:

• Los Angeles Kings defender Slava Voynov (six-year, $4.166 million AAV)
• Florida Panthers defender Dmitry Kulikov (three-year, $4.33 million AAV)
• Nashville Predators defender Roman Josi (seven-year, $4 million AAV)
• Washington Capitals defender John Carlson (six-year, $3.966 million AAV)
• Anaheim Ducks defender Cam Fowler (five-year, $4 million AAV)

Here's the comparison table - using the same very simple criteria: career games played, career points, average ice-time; compiled from the season before they signed their current contract extension.

In reality, there's a reason all of those players are signed to long-term contracts and Franson isn't. From the perspective of Franson's salary arbitration case though, and based on his counting stats, experience and ice time, it's not too difficult to make the argument that he should be compensated in a way that isn't materially different from those other young players. 

It seems more likely that Franson's side might score a knockout victory at arbitration than the Leafs could, but the most likely scenario is still reportedly an 11th hour settlement. If the hearing occurs, something in the realm of the $3.4-million AAV contract that Sharks defender Jason Demers recently signed wouldn't be surprising.