Why the Raptors and Warriors made different decisions with Dwane Casey and Mark Jackson
Two very different situations have unfolded in Toronto and Golden State over the last 24 hours in the aftermath of both the Raptors and Warriors being eliminated from the postseason, and each reminds us that expectations play as much a role in NBA job security as overall performance does.
In Toronto, Dwane Casey received a lucrative new three-year contract after the Raptors won 48 games and made it to Game 7 of the first round in one of the best seasons in franchise history. In the Bay Area, Mark Jackson was fired after the Warriors won 51 games and made it to Game 7 of the first round in one of the best seasons in franchise history.
The difference, of course, is that the Raptors were expected to lose somewhere in the neighborhood of 48 games this season, while the Warriors were expected - at least from a front office perspective - to match, if not improve upon their surprising second round run from last season. Warriors co-owner Joe Lacob even admitted as much in a candid interview with the San Jose Mercury News in February, with the Warriors sitting at a 'disappointing' 31-21 at the time.
The Warriors had the slightly better record in the vastly superior Conference, they finished with the third-ranked defense and their starting lineup posted the best net rating of the NBA's 34 most frequently used five-man units, so there are certainly indicators of a solid job done by Jackson and his staff. In addition, between a shaky bench and shaky health that included the team being without Andrew Bogut during the playoffs, a first round exit in the unforgiving meat grinder of the West is far from an underperformance.
Expectations are what make the job, though. Between Jackson's team failing to live up to those expectations, his reportedly poor relationship with Lacob and company, the bizarre timing of the firing and reassignment of two assistant coaches and even the potentially divisive issue of Jackson's faith-based demeanor, his fate was all but sealed.
In fairness to Golden State's brass, Jackson isn't exactly an irreplaceable coach. He may be somewhat of an irreplaceable presence on the sidelines and a great motivator, but he isn't a great X's and O's guy. That was exposed a bit more this season than in years past, with most pointing to the absence of Mike Malone on his staff as the culprit.
The greats need to be able to both consistently motivate and game plan, and Jackson hasn't proven he's completely capable of the latter. In that regard, his firing could actually be a sign (like last year's firing of Lionel Hollins in Memphis) that more front offices are willing to overlook positive overall performance if they don't believe the currently employed coach is the right man for the job. If that's the case, Randy Wittman and Scott Brooks shouldn't feel so good right now despite second round appearances.
The Raptors had a sensational season in comparison to expectations and Casey's team finished the season with an East-best 42-22 record after trading Rudy Gay in December, in addition to finishing as one of just four teams (along with the Spurs, Thunder and Clippers) to place in the top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. But like Jackson and most other coaches, he has his own flaws and has had his X's and O's and rotation management called into question by fans and observers.
There are only a few coaches who go without questioning and second-guessing from armchair bench bosses. There are only a few coaches who can consistently be counted on to at least meet expectations, if not outperform them, and get the most out of their teams year after year. For the most part, those coaches stay put and don't jump on the NBA coaching carousel unless they choose to themselves.
At the other end are coaches who are clearly in way over their heads at the NBA level and who can negatively affect the win probability of their teams.
Then there is the majority of NBA coaches - the large chunk in the middle of those two tiers - whose performance is almost entirely reliant upon the usual factors. These men are buoyed or sunken by the talent at their disposal and expectations from above.
Jackson and Casey probably both fall in that middle majority. Both are fine and with time could emerge as two of the game's great head coaches, but neither is there yet.
The Raptors decided that after a fun season of out-perfoming expectations and few, if any, great coaches available to them, they would take their chances on Casey continuing to evolve into that guy and avoid unnecessarily hopping on the aforementioned carousel.
The Warriors decided, with potential candidates out there they obviously feel are upgrades, that following a season of failed expectations is the perfect time to hop on for a ride.