Is Andre Ellington the NFL's next great running back?
In the National Football League, we typically evaluate running backs based on yardage and touchdowns. In this fantasy football crazed world we live in, they are the most tangible and obvious stats to look at. Gaining yardage helps move the offense down the field and touchdowns turn into points that help your team win.
That method of rating runners isn't exactly wrong, as no one would say LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, and Marshawn Lynch, who all had over 1,200 yards in 2013, aren't elite backs. However, you could make an argument that Arizona Cardinals rookie running back Andre Ellington's year of 652 yards rushing and three touchdowns was the most impressive of the bunch.
Ellington's rookie season was anything but greatly anticipated after he was selected by the Cards in the sixth round. The Clemson product finished fourth in school history with 3,436 yards on the ground in four seasons with the Tigers. Even though he barely eclipsed 1,000 yards in his final two collegiate seasons, some still tabbed him as a second or third round pick. Any thoughts of those aspirations though were derailed after Ellington ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at the combine.
So what makes Ellington's 652 yards so special? Well for starters he compiled them on only 118 carries, which worked out to a 5.5 yards per carry average, tops in the league. For some incomprehensible reason, Rashard Mendenhall started 15 games to Ellington's one, but managed just 687 yards on nearly 100 more carries. It's scary to think what Ellington could have accomplished with a starter's workload on that pace.
The aforementioned McCoy led the league with over 1,600 yards rushing on a whopping 314 carries in Chip Kelly's Tecmo Bowl offense. If you gave Ellington that many touches he would have gone over 1,700 yards. Now you might say that's an unfair comparison because both players are in different situations and there is no guarantee Ellington could have kept up that pace for an entire year. You'd probably be right, but some comparisons between the two are eye-popping.
If you look at McCoy's blockers, he's in one of the best positions to succeed in the NFL. According to Pro Football Focus, Philadelphia Eagles' offensive guards Evan Mathis and Todd Herremans ranked first and second respectively as far as run blocking goes in the entire league. Center Jason Kelce came in third at his position and Jason Peters and Lane Johnson were also in the top 10 among tackles.
Ellington on the other hand had to deal with a line that probably had some difficulty just blocking the sled in practice. The Cardinals' Paul Fanaika ranked 77th out of 81 guards who qualified for the rankings and Daryn Colledge wasn't much better coming in at 53rd. Tackle Bradley Sowell was 75th out of 76 and Eric Winston ranked 62nd. It's a miracle Ellington survived the season in one piece, let alone posting some excellent numbers.
Ellington also proved he was more than just a runner in 2013. He was one of only four running backs (Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray were the others) that graded out in the top 20 in running, receiving, and blocking.
You can see glimpses in the highlights below that Ellington can be a major difference maker for the Cards in the passing game. His ability to take short flare passes out of the backfield and turn them into substantial gains looks somewhat similar to the way Marshall Faulk used to be employed by the St. Louis Rams. Not to mention that anytime you can encourage Carson Palmer to check the ball down, it's probably a good thing for everyone involved.
That's not to say he's going to be as good as Faulk, but you can even notice on running downs that he has a similar style to the hall of famer. Ellington's patience in the hole, followed by the acceleration when he makes his cut, is his greatest asset, much like Faulk.
As easy as it is to be excited about the future of Ellington, he's still going to have his detractors. Some will point to his size at 5-9 and 199 pounds and question his durability. His stature isn't much different than that of Danny Woodhead or Darren Sproles, two effective players that are rarely used in anything more than a third down, pass catching role. With that being said, Ellington shouldn't be destined for a similar fate. He plays bigger than he looks and finished second in the league in yards after contact per attempt in 2013. Woodhead and Sproles both ranked in the bottom 10 in the NFL.
The Cardinals quietly won 10 games in 2013 and fought all year to get respect. Their rookie running back's underrated campaign also went largely unnoticed. If you're planning to draft him for your 2014 fantasy season you better keep it to yourself. Ellington won't be the best kept secret in the NFL for long.