4 top prospects with biggest boom-or-bust potential

Though NFL teams try to convince us otherwise, picking a prospect early in the draft is essentially just flipping a coin and hoping you'll land a star.

Some teams are better at scouting than others, and some get lucky, but history tells us that a significant portion of the players taken in the first few rounds won't pan out, despite the hype and expectations attached to many of them.

Here are the four top-tier prospects in the 2017 draft who have the biggest boom-or-bust potential:

Pat Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech

Watching tape of Pat Mahomes leaves you either awed by his elite arm talent and gunslinger mentality or horrified by his overaggression and inability to play within the system.

That means some tab the former Texas Tech standout as QB1, while others don't view him as a first-round pick at all - though it's all but certain that's where he'll be selected.

More than any other quarterback in this draft, Mahomes needs to land somewhere he'll have time to sit and learn for a year, with a coach who has experience successfully refining a young, raw passer.

Kansas City and Andy Reid or Arizona and Bruce Arians would be ideal, but even in one of those spots, Mahomes has as good a shot at ending up a Pro Bowler as he does at being out of the league by the end of his rookie deal.

Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State

Few doubt Malik McDowell's physical abilities. In fact, the 6-foot-6, 295-pounder may be one of the most athletically gifted players in the entire draft. He has a rare bend for a man his size, can overwhelm opponents with strength and speed, and possesses the versatility to play all over the defensive line.

Usually, that all combines to make a player worthy of a top-10 pick. However, McDowell is considered more of a mid-to-late first-rounder due to concerns over his work ethic.

McDowell often appears to take plays off or consciously dial down his aggression. His athleticism is freaky, but it isn't enough by itself to make him a great player at the next level. The 20-year-old's technique needs significant work, and teams will be concerned about whether he's willing to put in the effort to fix it.

Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan

The riddle of Jabrill Peppers is one that many teams will decide not to solve. On one hand, Peppers is the kind of versatile athlete the NFL covets. He's a superb athlete who lined up at safety, inside linebacker, corner, in the slot, as a returner, and even in the offensive backfield during his college career.

This strength, however, is also the primary criticism of Peppers. Where does he fit at the NFL level? He mostly played linebacker at Michigan in 2016, but 30 teams apparently told him they view him as a safety.

While Peppers certainly has the athleticism and speed to excel as a play-making free safety, he lacks the ball skills (he had just one interception in three seasons) and the instincts for the position. Any team drafting Peppers high will be taking a big risk that he can learn the nuances of playing free safety to complement his elite physical talents.

Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State

Before the NFL combine, Dalvin Cook was viewed as one of the safer top-tier prospects - maybe even the running back most ready to make an impact from Day 1.

That's because Cook's tape shows a dynamic player. The former Florida State standout dominated with speed, agility, and vision - and looked the part of a franchise-level back.

However, now there's significant concern about whether Cook's play was a mirage after an awful outing at the combine. Beyond his above-average 40-yard dash, Cook put up terrible numbers in all the important events, particularly the 20-yard shuttle - one of the main indicators for a successful NFL running back - in which he ranked in the 8th percentile for the position, according to MockDraftable.com. That's close to unheard of for a potential top-15 running back.

Cook comes with notable off-field issues too. In high school, he was charged with robbery and firing and possessing a weapon on school property in separate incidents, though the charges were dropped. He was also found not guilty of misdemeanor battery following an incident outside a bar in 2015. Cook will likely still be taken in the first round, but if he busts, teams can't say there were no warning signs.

(Photos courtesy: Action Images)