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Should an NFL team spend a 1st-round pick on Sidney Jones?

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Cornerback prospect Sidney Jones boldly declared he will play football this season, only hours after undergoing surgery to repair an Achilles injury suffered at his Pro Day.

The proclamation caught the attention of many in the football world, as Achilles injuries often require a full year of recovery time. Jones has just four months until training camps open and roughly six months before the season begins. Despite his optimism, he is a long shot to be a meaningful contributor as a rookie.

Once considered a lock to be a first-round pick, it will be fascinating to see where NFL teams deem Jones worthy of selecting in next month's draft. The injury is likely to cause him to fall a bit, but how much will he have to fall before he becomes a value pick a team can't resist?

Jones is doing his part to sell himself, boasting he's the best cornerback in the draft and downplaying the injury.

"Don't look at the possibility of me not playing this first year," Jones told USA TODAY Sports' Tom Pelisseo. "Me being injured for this short amount of time - it's not going to compare to the rest of the contract, because any player can get hurt throughout their contract. This just happened to happen right now, and I can play basically right when the season starts.

"I will be playing this season. If you take me, I'm a good investment for your team. A great investment."

History isn't encouraging

Major injuries suffered shortly before the draft are rare - and even rarer for consensus first-round prospects.

Here are two top defensive prospects who suffered a significant injury shortly before the draft in recent seasons:

Draft Year Player Injury Suffered Draft Slot
2016 LB Jaylon Smith ACL Jan. 2016 34
2015 CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu ACL Dec. 2014 241

These are tenuous comparisons to Jones at best, as neither of the injuries were an Achilles injury and there was never a realistic expectation these players would play as rookies.

The Cowboys made Smith an early-second round pick knowing he would have to redshirt. They remain hopeful Smith will be an impact player this season, but recent reports suggesting the nerves in Smith's knee have been slow to regenerate aren't encouraging.

Would the Cowboys redo the pick if they had the chance now? Perhaps. They certainly could have used an impact defender in their playoff loss to the Packers. Chris Jones and Noah Spence were both selected within five picks of Smith and are obvious fits with the benefit of hindsight.

Ekpre-Olomu was considered by some to be the best cornerback prospect in his draft class, but required two reconstructive surgeries after dislocating his knee and tearing his ACL. He fell to the seventh round in the draft and has yet to play a snap in the NFL.

Would the Browns like a do-over? Sure, but they gave up very little in the first place to draft Ekpre-Olomu.

The case for Jones as a 1st-round pick

Though Jones may indeed have a chance to play as a rookie, the smart money is on him falling out of the first round of next month's draft. NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah recently said he'll be surprised if Jones is selected before the third round.

But there are three words that could prevent Jones from falling out of the first round of this spring's draft: fifth-year option.

If an NFL team is convinced Jones remains the draft's best cornerback and will eventually prove it (even if it doesn't happen this year), it could select him late in the first round and lock in the option to retain him for five years, rather than the four-year contracts that players selected after the first round get.

It would take a perfect storm for that to happen, however. Not only would the team need to own a pick in the latter half of the first round, that team's general manager would need to be so confident in his team's roster (and his own job security) to pass on selecting an immediate contributor in favor of a player who probably won't make an impact until 2018.

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