Fantasy owners can't expect RB1 production from Ty Montgomery
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Here's a look at the fantasy implications of RB Eddie Lacy's move to the Seattle Seahawks on the Green Bay Packers' roster:
For the #Seahawks and RB Eddie Lacy, it's: 1 year, $5.55M with $3M fully guaranteed.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 14, 2017
With Lacy limited to just five games last season, here's how the Packers' backfield produced:
| NAME | ATT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery | 77 | 457 | 3 |
| Aaron Rodgers (QB) | 67 | 369 | 4 |
| Eddie Lacy | 71 | 360 | 0 |
| Aaron Ripkowski (FB) | 34 | 150 | 2 |
| James Starks | 63 | 145 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 31 | 114 | 1 |
Both Starks and Michael are free agents, and the team hasn't been tied to any of the available big-name free-agents. John Crockett and Don Jackson are the only other running backs currently under contract with the team. Jackson received just 10 carries last season. Should they elect to not address the position via the draft, Montgomery will enter the year at the top of the depth chart.
Leaning on the Passing Game
While Montgomery ran for a very efficient 5.9 yards per carry, the Packers largely ignored the run last season. They finished the year ranked second to the Baltimore Ravens with a pass-play percentage of 64.68. Over their final three weeks of the season, all wins, they passed on 70.05 percent of all offensive plays.
Montgomery received double-digit carries just twice all year, going for 162 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries, against the Chicago Bears.
He totaled just 17 attempts and 67 yards in the final two weeks of the regular season. In three playoff games, he received 25 carries for 91 yards and two scores, both against the Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional Round.
Including the postseason, Montgomery totaled 54 receptions and 425 receiving yards last season, though he failed to score a touchdown off a pass. Expect more of the same in 2017, where Montgomery serves as a placeholder in the backfield, only to run a direct route once the ball is snapped. He twice had 10 receptions in 2016.
A PPR Cheat Code
Whether Montgomery retains dual RB/WR eligibility or is listed only as a running back, Montgomery will be a premiere target in PPR leagues. Acting as a running back, he'll play a lot of snaps out of the backfield, but in an Aaron-Rodgers offense, he'll act as an extra receiver in fantasy, without needing him to be used in a utility spot. He'll be highly used in daily fantasy, but his unique eligibility and role will allow for creative roster construction.
He received double-digit touches in each of the final four weeks of the regular season. This is elite wide receiver usage.
Per Fantasy Football Calculator, Montgomery currently has an ADP of 6.12 and is being selected as the WR30 in standard leagues. Should the Packers elect not to add any other impact running backs, and should Montgomery retain his dual eligibility, he can be viewed as an WR2 or RB3. Low touchdown potential caps his value in standard leagues, but he'll be a top asset in all PPR formats.
Here's a look at Lacy's value in Seattle.