Why picking UCLA to reach the Final Four is a must
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Defense wins championships, but offense carries teams to championships, and the first team that amateur bracketologists should pencil into a spot in the Final Four is UCLA - the most efficient offense in the country.
The Bruins enter the tournament on the heels of coming up just short in the Pac-12 tournament, losing in the semifinals to Arizona, but still bring one of the nation's scariest teams into the South Region. The Bruins only have one real black eye in the loss column, to USC, making them one of only three teams (Arizona, Oregon) to best UCLA this season.
The Bruins came out on the losing end of the Pac-12 semifinal game, but it would be foolhardy to judge UCLA's Final Four odds on that game alone.
Star players Lonzo Ball and Bryce Alford were held to single digits in the scoring department in that contest, something that happened only two other times this season. The odds are highly unlikely they'll have off nights in the same game on the biggest stage of them all, and with both players' dominant ball-moving skills, it's not a stretch to think they could facilitate a winning offense even if their own shots aren't falling.
For those who put weight in the argument that conference tournament performance is a precursor to NCAA tournament performance, it should be noted that a conference tournament champion hasn't won the big one since 2013, when Louisville knocked off Michigan who, coincidentally, also didn't win its conference tournament that year.
Of all the teams that could potentially stand in the way of UCLA reaching the Final Four, Kentucky poses the biggest threat in a potential Sweet 16 meeting. The Wildcats once again have a plethora of NBA draft-quality talent, led by Malik Monk and De'Aaron Fox, but the one area where the Bruins have received more consistent production has been in the frontcourt. Freshman forward TJ Leaf led the Bruins in scoring with 16.2 points while averaging 8.3 rebounds, and Thomas Welsh is an under-the-radar contributor who, as a true 7-footer, also happens to be shooting 90 percent from the free-throw line.
As far as moments of weakness go throughout the season, UCLA has been as airtight as any of the top teams in the nation and have given fans no real reason for serious doubt. Offense should not be a problem for a team that led the nation in offensive efficiency, first- and second-half points per game, and the fifth highest average scoring margin. The Bruins should be able to avoid a total implosion on the defensive end, making them a solid bet to pave their way to win the South Region and advance to the Final Four.