UFC Fortaleza predictions: Can 'The Phenom' turn back the clock?

Prior to UFC Fight Night 106 in Fortaleza, Brazil on Saturday, theScore's Themistoklis Alexis and Alexander K. Lee predict the evening's main-card bouts.

Middleweight

Vitor Belfort (14-9 UFC, 25-13)
vs.
Kelvin Gastelum (8-2 UFC, 13-2)

Themistoklis Alexis: The last time Vitor Belfort fought in his native Brazil, he was handed a first-round TKO by Ronaldo Souza. A similar fate awaits him in his return.

"The Phenom" still possesses lightning quick hands at 39, but tends to fade if they don't find their home within the first round or two. He gets a stellar wrestler and crisp boxer 14 years his junior in Kelvin Gastelum, who knocked Tim Kennedy into retirement in his last outing. Expect the 25-year-old to stage a repeat performance and ride his footwork to keep his consciousness intact through the opening round before opening up his offense for his second straight stoppage.

THE PICK: Gastelum

Alexander K. Lee: This is all going to come down to the opening round. If Belfort can connect with one of his trademark combinations or a wicked head kick, he'll pull this one off; if not, the fight belongs to Gastelum.

The former "Ultimate Fighter" winner has his own calling card and that's non-stop pressure. Few fighters have been able to keep up with Gastelum when he's in top shape. Whether it's with his wrestling or simply maintaining a steady output of punches, Gastelum is going to come out with the hard-fought win here.

THE PICK: Gastelum

Light Heavyweight

Mauricio Rua (8-8 UFC, 24-10)
vs.
Gian Villante (5-4 UFC, 15-7)

Lee: Even in the twilight of his career, Mauricio Rua should have enough left to take out Gian Villante.

Oddly, Rua is only four years older than Villante, but he has a lot more mileage on him from his wars over in Japan. Against a slugger like Villante, that vulnerability could prove fatal. Fortunately for Rua, Villante doesn't exactly have an iron chin himself, so the fighter who strikes first should get the win here.

Bolstered by his fellow Brazilians, "Shogun" should land early and often to stave off retirement talk for at least one more fight.

THE PICK: Rua

Alexis: The Rua that ravaged the PRIDE FC roster would've never even shared an Octagon with the likes of Villante, but oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Endless wars in both the Chute Boxe gym and the cage have rendered the former light heavyweight champion a shell of his former self, and his battle-worn chin won't withstand Villante's striking for long. Rua can snatch a W if he comes out guns ablaze, as the Long Islander isn't the most methodical fighter, but Villante's superior threshold for pain says he weathers an early storm and turns the tables for a flash KO.

THE PICK: Villante

Lightweight

Edson Barboza (12-4 UFC, 18-4)
vs.
Beneil Dariush (8-2 UFC, 14-2)

Alexis: Edson Barboza is as good as done if Beneil Dariush takes him to the ground, but he'll see to it he doesn't make it there.

The 31-year-old's endless bag of kicking techniques are equally as powerful as they are fast, and rarely - if ever - telegraphed, which makes him a nightmare to prepare for. Look for "Junior" to keep Dariush from shooting for takedowns by mixing up his strikes, before putting the 27-year-old away with another highlight-reel stoppage.

THE PICK: Barboza

Lee: As good a striker as Barboza is, Dariush the more well-rounded fighter. He'll be wise to avoid a prolonged striking battle with Barboza, but he has enough stand-up acumen of his own to survive on the feet until he can take the fight where he wants to go.

The threat of a takedown or trip will limit Barboza's options and cause him to think twice about throwing some of his flashier attacks. That hesitation will cost him as he'll either end up absorbing Dariush's surprisingly powerful punches or end up on the mat where he stands little chance of victory.

THE PICK: Dariush

Flyweight

Jussier Formiga (5-3 UFC, 19-4)
vs.
Ray Borg (4-2 UFC, 10-2)

Lee: Ray Borg is a strong wrestler with a deep gas tank, traits that have carried him to four wins in six Octagon appearances. Those traits won't be enough to get past Jussier Formiga.

One of the UFC's truly elite grapplers, Formiga has made a career out of neutralizing any opponents who dare to get too close to him. Borg doesn't have the striking needed to keep Formiga away, so expect the Brazilian to take this one to the ground in short order and grind out a decision win.

THE PICK: Formiga

Alexis: With wins over solid wrestlers in Dustin Ortiz and Zach Makovsky, Formiga has already drafted the blueprint to beat Borg.

"The Tazmexican Devil" owns the edge in athleticism, but lacks the acumen on the feet to keep out of Formiga's clutches. The crafty Brazilian needs just a wee window of opportunity to put the youngster on his back, so expect nothing less from Formiga than three rounds of top control to take all three scorecards.

THE PICK: Formiga

Women's Bantamweight

Bethe Correia (4-2 UFC, 10-2)
vs.
Marion Reneau (3-2 UFC, 7-3)

Alexis: The matchup might make sense in terms of Bethe Correia's and Marion Reneau's respective places in the rankings, but their tape says it's far more lopsided.

A 4-2 UFC record is normally nothing to sneeze at, but three of Correia's four Octagon conquests have since been handed their walking papers. The Brazilian loves to stand and bang, but she lacks the punching power to put Reneau away. Expect "The Belizean Bruiser" - a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt - to put Correia on her back before long and maul her until the referee mercifully intervenes.

THE PICK: Reneau

Lee: Almost like a female Jake Shields, Correia has shown that she has a knack for making fights ugly and forcing the judges to make a call that usually ends up in her favor. That's a trait that will serve her well against Reneau, a fighter who projects to be superior to Correia in several areas.

Look for Correia to do everything she can to poke away at Reneau and frustrate the 39-year-old for three rounds. By the time Reneau finds an opening to ramp up her offense, it will be too little too late.

THE PICK: Correia

Welterweight

Alex Oliveira (5-2 UFC, 15-4-1)
vs.
Tim Means (8-4 UFC, 26-7-1)

Lee: Tim Means was moments away from finishing Alex Oliveira in their first meeting, so the question is whether he can impose his will on his Brazilian foe once more.

They call Means "The Dirty Bird" for a reason, and even if this one doesn't end early, you can bet that he'll relish a down-and-dirty, ugly fight that Oliveira will be hard-pressed to keep up with. Even if Oliveira can take this one to the mat, he'll have to be careful that he doesn't end up in bottom position with Means raining elbows down on his dome.

Means by TKO.

THE PICK: Means

Alexis: "The Dirty Bird" was getting the better of the striking exchanges with Oliveira before an errant knee rendered their date at UFC 207 a no-contest, and expect him to pick up where he left off in Saturday's curtain jerker.

"Cowboy" may be better suited for the 170-pound division, but he'll have a rough go of keeping the lanky Means pinned against the cage or getting inside. Look for Means to crack the Brazilian with his trademark elbows anytime he tries to close the distance before finishing him off for his third straight knockout.

THE PICK: Means

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