3 reasons why Trea Turner is a Top-20 fantasy pick

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When I drew up the initial 2017 rankings for fantasy baseball, I'll admit I had a difficult time deciding where to put Washington Nationals IF/OF Trea Turner. It's so easy to get caught up in the excitement of a rookie in the midst of a small sample size performing at an alarming level.

In keeper leagues, especially, there are no options more coveted at the moment. While a failure to live up to expectations is certainly a possibility, the chance that he could tap into his five-category talent throughout 2017 makes him worth the early investment in standard, redraft formats.

I settled on ranking him at 16th. Aggressive? Yes. Absurd? To some. Worth the gamble? Absolutely. Here's why:

He runs with the wind at his back

Turner stole 33 bases in 73 games. He was caught six times. It's not much of a stretch to think he can swipe 60 or more over the course of a full season. In Triple-A, he stole 25 bases in 83 games. This kind of base-stealing prowess is incredibly valuable to fantasy owners because you're often saddled scrambling for steals in the later rounds. Not so with Turner.

He outran Marlins 2B Dee Gordon, who stole 30 bases in 79 games. Turner's 33 steals tied him for seventh in the majors with Diamondbacks 2B Jean Segura. Even if he merely equals his partial season steals number over the course of a full 162, it prevents you from blowing more roster spots on stolen base specialists who do nothing else.

But boy, is he fast.

Holy moses! He also stole home on a first-base pickoff attempt.

He's not going to stop running unless he gets injured or until he's older. His game will naturally change as time moves on, but for the immediate future he is going to be one of the premiere base-stealers available.

He carries some lumber

It's foolish to expect too much in the power department from Turner, and you should temper your hopes relative to the 13 home runs he hit in his rookie campaign. He never projected as much of a power hitter, capping out at six home runs over 83 games in Triple-A last season.

But he showed excellent contact rates and discipline. Despite his diminutive stature, he combined a solid approach with a quick and accurate swing to pay dividends. He hit one particular long ball 450 feet in Arizona. He had two multi-home run games in September. Power won't be the main event in Turner's game, but it won't be entirely absent, either.

Add in his slash line of .342/.370/.567, and there are very few holes in his game. It's safe to expect lulls and droughts as opponents adjust, but he was listed atop prospect rankings for a reason, and he should be able to re-adjust in his own right. It's what the best hitters do.

Turner runs, hits for average, hits for occasional power, scores runs and drives them in while playing for a team with a strong supporting cast including Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper. He's already shown that he's more than a single-category lottery ticket like Reds OF Billy Hamilton. Turner is a five-category star in the making and that is too rare to ignore.

You can't sleep on him

There are very few players who represent true 5x5 supremacy. Mike Trout is one. Paul Goldschmidt is, oddly, another (though that SB surge still seems anomalous). The closest comparisons are Mookie Betts and Jose Altuve.

Both Betts and Altuve shocked with their power game in 2016, something Turner did in his abbreviated 2016. It wouldn't be a surprise to anyone if all three took slight steps back in home run totals, but could still hit enough to return value relative to draft expectation. You weren't drafting them for their home runs, but it wound up being a nice bonus.

As the offseason has progressed, my ranking of Turner seems conservative relative to his consensus ADP at FantasyPros. Turner isn't a sleeper. If you want him, you're going to have to reach. And he's going to be worth it.