5 starting pitchers who will have a breakout year

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LHP James Paxton, Mariners

Had Paxton pitched enough innings to qualify, he would have finished with the second-highest average fastball velocity behind Noah Syndergaard. He averaged an astounding 96.7 mph with his heater.

Throwing a hard fastball isn't everything, though. Just ask Nathan Eovaldi. Paxton compliments his fastball with an excellent cutter that is roughly seven mph slower than his heater. He uses this to get plenty of punch outs. He also mixes in a solid curve ball and a change up that still need some work. He does all of this coming from an unorthodox arm angle.

Paxton has tinkered with his arm angle throughout his big league career. In his earlier days he was more over-the-top, but this past year he lowered it to more of a 3/4 angle which happens to be his natural arm slot.

The results showed. From 2013-2015 his K/BB ratio was 2.09. This past season it was 4.88, showing impressive command for a flame-thrower.

Paxton's 3.79 ERA wasn't overly impressive, but his 2.80 FIP would have been third-best in the majors had he qualified. FIP is far from a perfect stat, but a vastly improved Seattle defense should help bring his ERA down much closer to his FIP in 2017.

RHP Aaron Nola, Phillies

Nola's 4.78 ERA would indicate that he struggled last season. There's no denying that he did, but his 3.08 FIP would argue that he had some bad luck along the way. The 1.7 difference between the two was the largest gap of any pitcher who threw at least 100 innings last season.

The main reason why his ERA was so much higher than his FIP was because he struggled pitching from the stretch. Take a look:

You can look at this in many different ways:

1) Nola was simply unlucky and happened to give up hits when runners were on base.

2) Nola's pitching mechanics aren't as sound from the stretch.

3) As a ground ball pitcher, the defenses inability to shift as dramatically with runners on hurt Nola.

4) Pitching with runners on base was simply a psychological issue for Nola.

It's hard to pinpoint just one. However, it is important to note that in Nola's rookie year in 2015 when he made 13 starts his numbers were actually slightly better with runners on base than without. It's a small sample size, but it is still evidence of success while pitching from the stretch.

Nola's 90 mph two-seam fastball paved the way for an impressive 55.2 GB%. His wipeout curveball proved as a legitimate strikeout pitch, as he whiffed 121 batters in 111 innings. He was also able to keep the ball in the yard, despite Citizens Bank Park being hitter friendly. His command was also excellent, as he walked just 29 batters.

All that is standing in Nola's way is his ability to pitch with runners on base. If he can resolve this issue there's no reason why he can't finish as a top-20 fantasy pitcher.

RHP Vince Velasquez, Phillies

Velasquez has electric stuff. His fastball sits in the mid-90s with plenty of life and movement. He showed decent command of it too, walking only 45 batters in 131 innings. There is still plenty of room for improvement, though. With a repeatable delivery, this shouldn't be an issue.

Improved command will lead to more balls lower in the zone. With the movement on his fastball, this will lead to more ground balls. His GB% was just 34.8 last season, leaving plenty of room for improvement, considering the league average is roughly 44 percent. This will go a long way in his success, as the Phillies boast a much stronger defense on the infield than the outfield.

With what will be his third season in the big leagues, Velasquez will learn how to pitch off his great fastball with more effectiveness. His slider graded as his only positive offspeed pitch, but he used it less than his curve ball and his change up, per PITCHf/x. Expect this to change in 2017.

RHP Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays

Stroman's 2016 was a tale of three seasons. Take a look:

Aside from the middle portion of the season, Stroman was excellent. The rough patch during the middle of the season can't be ignored, but it appears as though struggles of that magnitude are behind him.

Baseball is all about adjustments. In the midst of his struggles, Stroman was able to make adjustments. He simplified his delivery and started throwing more sliders and less change ups. He started mixing in a rising four-seam fastball up in the zone to compliment his two-seamer and change the eye level of the hitter. He averaged nearly a strikeout per inning during his final 13 starts.

A full season with these adjustments should lead to a breakout season for Stroman. He led the majors with a 60.1 ground ball percentage -- 3.4 percent better than the next best -- and Toronto boasts a strong infield defense.

LHP Blake Snell, Rays

Snell is oozing with upside. He has four solid pitches, including a devastating curve ball that could already be one of the best in baseball -- and he's just 24.

In his rookie season he had an ERA of 3.54 and struck out 98 batters in 89 innings. His problem? He walked 51 batters.

Snell is still growing into his 6-foot-4 frame. He is only listed at 180 pounds, but if he was able to add some muscle in the offseason it will go a long way in improving his command - and his velocity, for that matter.

The Rays develop all of their young pitchers in a unique but effective way. They teach them all the same mechanics up until a certain point in their delivery, but they all begin their wind up in the same way.

Many Rays homegrown pitchers over the years, including James Shields, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Archer and Alex Cobb, saw vast improvements in their command from year one to year two.

Snell only threw 152 innings last season across the majors and Triple-A, so the Rays will likely keep him on an innings limit of around 180. With Snell's stuff, he could still record 200 Ks in this workload.

Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.

(Photos courtesy: Action Images)