3 First-round exits and 3 first-round entrances
Follow theScore's fantasy feed on Twitter (@theScoreFantasy) for the latest news, features and more.
The key to the first round of a fantasy baseball draft isn't to secure one of the top 12 players, but to draft a player assured to finish as a top-25 fantasy asset. A player from the first round doesn't need to hit his ceiling in the given year, he just needs to play up to a high floor and not bottom out.
Due to elements of aging, injury and luck there is fluctuation among first-round players from year to year. Here we'll try to rationalize those dropping from 2016's first 12 selections and attempt to validate or reject those making their first appearance inside the ADP top 12. All ADP figures taken from Fantasy Pros' consensus.
Miami Marlins OF Giancarlo Stanton ▼ (36)
A groin injury in 2016 was one ailment too many for many owners who've used a first-round selection on Stanton in recent years. Partially due to the injury, his ISO and BABIP were well below his career averages last season, while his walk and strikeout rates were around their norms. He remained among the league leaders in hard-hit and fly-ball percentage.
If healthy, there's no reason for such a dramatic discount with the Marlins' team offense projecting to be the best they've had in years.
Detroit Tigers 1B Miguel Cabrera ▼ (14)
Perhaps it's the fact he's set to turn 34 years old in mid-April, but Cabrera's (slight) fall out of the first round comes as a surprise. His power numbers bounced back in a big way, as his 38 home runs and .247 ISO were his highest marks in three years. His .316/.393/.563 slashline was elite in all three categories and right around his career rate in each category. He no longer has earth-shattering upside, but his floor still qualifies as an elite talent.
Pittsburgh Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen ▼ (59)
Unlike Stanton and Cabrera, McCutchen likely doesn't have the ability to return to first-round form in 2017. The former high-level base-stealer converted just six of 13 attempts in 2016. He continues to hit ~25 home runs every season, despite a dwindling ISO and his lowest hard-hit rate since 2011. A low BABIP can be partially blamed on his diminished speed, and a lower OBP is a result of a gross decrease in his walk rate.
Boston Red Sox OF Mookie Betts ▲ (2)
Betts broke out in 2016 to hit 31 home runs off a .216 ISO. He remained a major threat on the basepaths with 26 steals on 30 attempts. Don't be lured by the power outburst. Betts ranked second in the MLB last season with 15 "Just Enough" home runs, per ESPN's Home Run Tracker. His five "Lucky Homers" also ranked second. Expect major regression in combination with a return to normal for his ISO.
Washington Nationals 2B/OF Trea Turner ▲ (11)
Turner dazzled the fantasy baseball community in a 324-plate-appearance stint with the Nationals last season. He hit 13 home runs and swiped 33 bases, while posting a .342/.370/.567 slashline. He did all this with a .225 ISO and a .388 BABIP. The speed is very likely real, as he was thrown out just six times, but he failed to display this type of power through his entire minor-league career.
Chicago Cubs 1B/3B/OF Kris Bryant ▲ (3)
Depending on when you draft in 2016, how eager your fellow owners were and the scoring format of your league, Bryant would have been drafted anywhere from the middle of the second round to the middle of the first round last season. It paid off for those who jumped the gun on his breakout, but Houston Astros SS Carlos Correa was a prime example of the more likely result in this scenario, as he disappointed those who chased his potential.
Bryant enters 2017 as a certified first-round talent, offering elite production in four categories and a handful of stolen bases. He hits in the heart of one of the league's top offenses and has racked up 650-plus plate appearances in consecutive seasons.
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)