Bubble Watch: What do Arkansas, Wake Forest need to do to make the Big Dance?
As we inch closer to March Madness, we turn our attention to the bubble and the respective teams living on it. Every Friday for the rest of the season, theScore will provide a look at teams sitting on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA tournament.
Arkansas 19-7 (8-5) RPI: 35 SOS: 73
The Hogs scored a critical victory Wednesday night when they grounded out a win in Columbia against South Carolina. That seven-point victory represents their best win of the season and gives the Razorbacks an inside track to a coveted “double-bye” in the upcoming SEC tournament. Equally encouraging has been the improved play of senior guard Dusty Hannahs. The perimeter marksman from Little Rock, Ark., has connected on 19 of his last 34 attempts from downtown (55.8 percent) during his five-game hot streak.
Hannahs’ range, combined with Moses Kingsley’s performance in the low post, gives Arkansas a challenging inside-outside game to defend. If the Hogs can hold serve at home against Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Georgia down the stretch, they likely won’t need a victory in Nashville to punch their ticket to the Big Dance. This postseason push would likely save Mike Anderson’s job to boot.
Wake Forest 15-11 (6-8) RPI: 36 SOS: 22
The Demon Deacons haven’t gone dancing since 2010 and haven’t made the second weekend of the tournament in 13 years, but the program appears to have things headed in the right direction under the leadership of Danny Manning. After winning 21 games with Tulsa, which included an automatic bid to the Big Dance in 2014, Manning decided that the rebuilding process in Winston-Salem wasn’t too daunting.
After two sub-.500 seasons down on Tobacco Road, it would appear that Wake Forest has turned the corner and is ready to partake in March Madness. The RPI loves the Demon Deacons but their resume feels incomplete without a true signature win. They travel to Cameron Indoor on Saturday and host Louisville on March 1, two potential wins that could really help them differentiate themselves from the at-large pack.
Marquette 15-10 (6-7) RPI: 82 SOS: 77
Ten losses, including four in its last five games, makes Marquette a tough sell until you dig deeper into its resume. Mid-January upsets of Creighton and Villanova plus two additional RPI top-50 wins (Seton Hall, Georgia) make the Golden Eagles more attractive to the Selection Committee than other programs sitting on the bubble. That being said, Steve Wojciechowski and his squad need to run the table in the regular season or put on quite a show during the Big East tournament to feel any level of confidence that an at-large bid is headed their way.
Should they crack the Field of 68, they’d be a dangerous 10 or 11 seed capable of an upset or two thanks to their phenomenal shooting prowess both from inside and outside the arc. Marquette ranks eighth nationally in effective field goal percentage (57 percent) and first in three-point accuracy (41.9 percent).
Houston 18-7 (9-4) RPI: 59 SOS: 114
The Coogs are red-hot and have a real opportunity to snatch an at-large bid during what can only described as a weak year for bubble teams. Much like Wake Forest, Houston is in need of at least one signature win to impress the Selection Committee and they have two opportunities to snag said win before the AAC conference tournament next month.
The Cougars host SMU on Saturday on national television and then travel to Cincinnati on March 2. According to ESPN’s BPI rankings, Saturday’s showdown between the Cougars and Mustangs is the second best game this weekend in terms of overall quality (behind only Virginia-North Carolina). What makes UH so much fun to watch is its dynamic backcourt that has taken an immense step forward thanks to the improved play of former Oregon guard Damyean Dotson. Dotson and Rob Gray Jr. combine to average nearly 38 points, 11 rebounds, and six made three-pointers per contest out of the Houston backcourt.
(Photos Courtesy: Action Images)