10 players due for a fantasy fall in 2017
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SP Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox
If Porcello doesn't disappoint this season, the analytics community will be put on serious notice. Nearly all of his peripheral stats indicate that his 22-4 record and 3.15 ERA are unrepeatable. His career numbers include a modest 6.09 K/9, 4.20 ERA, and 1.31 WHIP.
SS Jean Segura, Seattle Mariners
A career year in an extremely hitter-friendly environment allowed Segura to notch 20 homers and 102 runs with Arizona last season. His move to Seattle lands him on the other end of the park factor spectrum and should limit last year's out of wack power numbers. Having Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager hit behind him, though, will secure some value.
C Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
Manager Ned Yost has driven Perez into the ground through the first half of each of the past three seasons. Just how long he can keep doing that should be questioned, though, as Perez's batting average, OBP, and SLG percentage have all fallen roughly 50 points from their 2013 levels. Wear and tear at the catcher position is common, and Perez is in danger of regressing further.
RP Francisco Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
Rodriguez experienced a statistical collapse last year, seeing his K/9 drop almost two full batters from 9.79 to 8.02. His ERA also ballooned from 2.21 to 3.24 in that year-to-year comparison. The closer position fluctuates like no other in baseball, and Rodriguez's lapse could mean a short leash.
1B Hanley Ramirez, Boston Red Sox
Ramirez obliterated left-handers like never before last season, hitting .346 with 11 homers in 127 at-bats. That 11.5 AB/HR ratio was a massive improvement compared to the 24.9 AB/HR ratio Ramirez complied through his previous 11 seasons against southpaws. The loss of David Ortiz also reduces the appeal of his supporting cast.
2B Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals
Murphy followed a career year in 2015 with an even more superb 2016, registering an insane .347 average and .595 slugging percentage. Those marks were roughly 50 and 150 points higher than his career averages. Expecting another 20-80-100 campaign with such unbelievable rate stats may require back-to-back career-year campaigns.
SP Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays
Sanchez has noticeably outpitched his xFIP the past two years, registering a 3.22 ERA versus a 4.27 xFIP in 2015 and a 3.00 ERA versus a 3.75 xFIP in 2016. While that's only one metric, banking on another 15-win campaign and .882 win-loss percentage seems more unlikely. Regression closer to a 4.00 ERA and a more modest record would see him settle far below his lofty 2016 fantasy finish.
2B Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins
Knocking 28 homers in last year's final 72 games makes Dozier an easy candidate to slow down. A heavy pull and fly-ball reliance also hints at shaky ground in terms of repeating another 40-homer season. While Dozier remains a decent bet to hit 25-80-80, that's a dip you need to factor in on draft day.
SP Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
Hernandez is already at the tail-end of his career. His velocity is dipping drastically and his strikeouts and WHIP are trending in the wrong direction. With 2,415 innings on his arm, the days of throwing gas are officially over. Put personal affinity aside and don't expect a bounce-back.
2B Ian Kinsler, Detroit Tigers
Kinsler abused deep fly balls to left last year, hitting 26 of his 28 homers down the left-field line. But with an Average Exit Velocity of 87.5 mph - a mark similar to that of Nori Aoki - and an average HR distance of 381 feet, failure to pull the ball at such a successful rate as last season will spell disappointment.
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)