What's wrong with the reeling Raptors?
The Toronto Raptors spent nearly 16 months holding either the first or the second seed in the Eastern Conference.
That streak ended Sunday when the Raptors inexplicably lost to the Orlando Magic on their home court. The Boston Celtics have capitalised on Toronto's abysmal 7-11 stretch over the last month to steal into second place, while other East contenders are hot on their tail. Following a 22-8 start to the year as the undisputed No. 2 team in the East, the Raptors find themselves 2.5 games out of fifth.
A startling complacency has set in. There is a noticeable lack of effort - especially on defense - for the once consistent Raptors. This malaise, not a lack of talent, explains their recent losses to teams with lesser talent in Philadelphia, Charlotte, Chicago, and Phoenix.
Losing to Orlando is the latest wake-up call: it's more than fatigue, it's more than midseason boredom, and it's more than a minor blip. The Raptors need to do whatever they can to snap out of this stretch of complacency.
Defensive woes
Their loss to Orlando featured all the classic symptoms found in every Raptors loss over the last month. An utter lack of urgency, an inconsistent effort from the supporting cast, and most of all, a shockingly careless and sloppy approach to defense.
Toronto allowed Orlando (who rank 29th in offensive rating) to shoot 53 percent from the floor for 114 points. This comes on the heels of last Sunday's meltdown against the Phoenix Suns - one in which the Raptors allowed 113 points to yet another bottom-10 offense.
Head coach Dwane Casey stepped to the podium with a belly full of fire as he called out his team for an "atrocious" effort.
"We gotta find five men that’s going to go out there and defend. You can go right down the roster and everybody had a defensive mistake. It’s accountability - you bring in guys off the bench and they’re making mistakes - it’s everybody.
"It's a little bit of everything. Stopping the ball. Bigs being up. Weakside coming in to tag, transition defense, communication. You go right down the line and we had almost every breakdown. It didn't start at the end of the game, it started in the first half ... it starts as a 48-minute game, we gotta commit to the defensive end, and until we do that we're going to be up and down."
These comments from Casey are nothing new. The former defensive specialist preaches the same thing every night but the message simply doesn't seem to stick with his stubborn roster.
Nobody would confuse the Raptors with being a shutdown defensive side, but they can generate enough stops when the defense is locked in. The problem with that, however, circles back to effort. For whatever reason the Raptors don't play hard for extended stretches, which leads to huge runs for the opposing side, and it comes back to burn them on a nightly basis.
The Raptors rank 20th in defensive rating with three months in the books. They're not going anywhere in the playoffs if that mark continues.
Supporting cast
The All-Star backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are tasked to create nearly everything in the Raptors' offense. They have proven over the course of four seasons that they are capable of powering an elite offense.
Within that structure the Raptors need two things out of their supporting cast: make open shots and defend. The stars are doing their part but the role players aren't holding up their end of the bargain.
Lowry and DeRozan draw the bulk of defensive attention, which leaves open threes and easy rim runs for everyone else. But those looks aren't dropping in January. Three-point specialists in DeMarre Carroll (32 percent), Terrence Ross (33 percent), and Norman Powell (28.6 percent) aren't making their shots. Their bigs are also coming up short. Lucas Nogueira often passes up easy scoring opportunities in the paint for kickout passes for fear of drawing contact on his slender frame, while the steady-handed Jonas Valanciunas has fumbled away easy passes and flubbed point-blank layups.
More importantly, the supporting cast haven't gotten enough stops. The once-pesky Cory Joseph is now a revolving door when it comes to containing penetration, Carroll's effectiveness waxes and wanes along with his iffy health. Both centers have easily exploitable flaws (Valanciunas lacks awareness and foot speed, while Nogueira struggles on the defensive glass and gets pushed around by post-up players), and their best defender in Patrick Patterson has missed time due to a knee injury.
Lowry and DeRozan have pushed harder than ever over this stretch to make up for their teammates' deficiencies. The Raptors fall apart when both players hit the bench so Casey staggers their minutes to keep his team afloat. But that means racking up miles at an alarming rate. Both players rank in the top-10 for minutes played across the league
Frustration is also starting to boil over. DeRozan and Lowry rank 5th and 7th league-wide in technical fouls - most of which have come during January. Both players have a habit of berating officials over missed foul calls despite averaging a combined 15.2 free-throw attempts per game. Lowry even picked up an ejection during a loss to the Suns.
The two All-Stars bring it every night to make up for a supporting cast that lacks consistency on both ends of the floor. That dynamic isn't sustainable.
Roster construction
Defensive shortcomings and a startling lack of consistent two-way forwards are age-old problems the Raptors have battled each of their last three seasons.
Take the power forward spot that the Raptors have been looking to upgrade ever since Chris Bosh left in 2010. Patterson is great in his role, but he is ultimately a backup four who struggles to get eight points a night. Past that, there is post-injury, out-of-shape Jared Sullinger, followed by a raw rookie in Pascal Siakam. The four spot is less a sore spot and more of a gaping wound.
Even the small forward and center spots are areas of concern. Carroll was signed to finally shore up the small forward spot but his career has been derailed by injuries. Some nights he is a strong 3-and-D option, other nights he's a huge liability on either end. Valanciunas shows moments of brilliance but there is somehow still confusion in his fifth season as to his role with the team. He ultimately is not a great fit alongside the All-Star backcourt in Casey's system.
President Masai Ujiri has been incredibly patient with the roster, opting to stand pat in each of the last three trade deadlines while making minor tweaks to the supporting cast in the offseason, but his inactivity is starting to catch heat from fans.
Raptors color analyst Jack Armstrong explained it best as the Raptors wrapped up their embarrassing effort against the Magic.
"Do you feel confident in this group between now and the rest of the season, to improve internally to the point where you really feel like they can make a run in the playoffs? Or is this something you need to look at and you need to make a move, or multiple moves? Only time will tell," Armstrong asked of the front office.
"Masai Ujiri has done a great job being patient ... this has been a terrific four-year run, but that's something you gotta think about. "