Beware of false power: 5 fantasy players who aren't HR locks
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OF Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
Betts propelled himself to superstar status last year, in part by hitting 31 homers. Cracking the 30-homer plateau, though, won't be a lock for 2017 despite the bullish attitude towards his development.
Firstly, 25 of Betts' 31 jacks came at either Fenway Park or Camden Yards. Secondly, 15 of his 31 homers were categorized as "Just Enoughs", according to ESPN's Home Run Tracker. With 80 percent of his homers coming in highly hitter-friendly parks and 48 percent being less convincing in their true distance, Betts' ability to repeat his 31-homer campaign should be questioned.
Yes, Betts isn't changing jerseys or divisions, but last year's homers seem too dependent on external variables to trust indefinitely.
3B Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
It feels rude to slight a legend like Beltre, but at 37 years old the veteran was seemingly already on the decline, combining for just 37 homers in 2014 and 2015. A surprising 2016, however, saw Beltre mash 32.
What to make of Beltre's resurgence is difficult. 12 of his homers were "Just Enough" and 19 came in 11 of ESPN's most hitter-friendly parks. It was also the first time since 2011 that Beltre sported a fly ball percentage above 40 percent.
An incredible second-half hot streak, though, is the main reason to question Beltre's ability to repeat. In his final 63 games, Beltre launched 19 homers for an at-bat per home run ratio of 12.5. A pace that ranks ahead of Barry Bonds' 12.92 career rate. Without the final streak, last season would've closely resembled the previous trend
1B Hanley Ramirez, Boston Red Sox
Like Betts, park factors were a boon for Ramirez last year. 22 of his 31 homers came within AL East parks and 19 came specifically at Fenway. At season's end, Ramirez trailed Betts by just one in the "Just Enough" category with 14. But park factors weren't the major force behind Ramirez's success. Instead, it was a shockingly good year against lefties.
From 2006 to 2015, Ramirez sported a 12.2 HR/FB ratio against lefties and a 24.9 AB/HR clip. Last year, he blew those numbers out of the water, registering a 33.3 HR/FB ratio and 11.5 AB/HR against southpaws. In terms of volume, the 11 homers Ramirez launched against lefties last year was the first time in his career he hit double-digits in a single season. Such a drastic reversal seems unrepeatable.
SS Asdrubal Cabrera, New York Mets
The stars aligned for Cabrera late last year, as he notched 10 homers in his final 35 games. In the months leading up to August, the 31-year-old had only 13 home runs.
Aside from his unsustainable late-season charge, Cabrera also registered career-highs in hard-hit percentage, pull percentage, and HR/FB ratio. This holy trinity of career-highs spurred Cabrera to his first 20 home run season since 2011. It's safe to assume another year of career highs across the board is unlikely.
Furthermore, opposing pitchers should have a better book on Cabrera in 2017. Last year, Cabrera hit 20 home runs as a lefty and 18 at home. With Citi Field being sneakily friendly to left-handed hitters, the recipe for Cabrera's success is no secret.
2B Ian Kinsler, Detroit Tigers
Kinsler's 28 round-trippers last season marked the first time he cracked 20 homers since 2011. Based on a few of Kinsler's numbers, however, 2016 might be the last time he hits the mark.
After four straight years of fewer than 20 homers, one would think Kinsler sacrificed contact for power as a way to achieve last year's outburst. And while tying a career-low in contact percentage (85.2) and setting a career high in strikeout rate (16.9 percent) might lead you to be correct, Kinsler's average exit velocity sat at a meager 87.5 mph - a mark below Norichika Aoki.
In order for Kinsler to go yard with such a mediocre AEV, it's no surprise 26 of his 28 homers were "pulls." But with Kinsler's HR/FB ratio jumping from under eight percent for four straight years to 12.5 percent last year, relying almost entirely on deep fly balls to left field is dangerous.
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)