How - and when - to take risks on draft day

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Due to the nature of the game, there are always copious amounts of pitfalls involved in fantasy baseball. Even the most reliable players can suffer injuries, be suspended, or just have inexplicably bad seasons. Luck is a major element of baseball and therefore a major part of the fantasy game.

Many owners, and most generally accepted strategies, aim to mitigate risks. This, however, is a lost cause even for those with the best intentions. Throwing caution to the wind (at times) and embracing risk can offer courageous owners plenty of upside while those around them in the draft room are opting for the safe moves.

It's the reason owners who miss the draft and get stuck with a roster full of autodrafted players can still compete for the league title. By being left with only the players every other owner views as too risky, they need just a standard amount of roster moves to still be competitive.

While skipping your draft and letting the computer do the legwork for you isn't an advisable strategy, the following tips for how and when to take risks in your fantasy baseball draft can put you above your competition in both snake and auction draft formats:

Snake Drafts

• Handling positional runs: More common in beginner or less competitive leagues, once the first few players at any given position go off the board, a higher premium will be placed on the remaining players at the position. Risky, owners can gain a competitive edge by passing up lesser players at the current run and opt for the best player available, regardless of positional eligibility.
  
  The risk is being stuck with a replacement-level player at the original position, but it's a strategy best employed at positions such as catcher and shortstop. The variation between the top performers at these positions and the No. 12 performer is much smaller than the difference at other positions. The ceilings just aren't as high.
  
  Owners should be willing to take their biggest risk at either corner infield position or in the outfield. The ceilings for these prototypical power hitters are much higher. Both starting pitchers and relievers have wild year-to-year variance coupled with increased injury risk.
  
  Fantasy owners are much better off gambling on a late-round middle reliever likely to take over a closing job, than betting on a mid-tier closer replicating his previous year's performance.

• Injured players: Whether they're coming off a serious injury suffered the previous season or a more minor injury sustained during spring training, injured players often find their way forced down the draft board. Injuries are cause concern, but it's important to know the difference between a fluke injury and something that could cause further problems.
  
  Players with extensive track records of elite performance and good health, who suffered a broken bone are at minimal risk of re-injury and should be able to return to their expected level of play once deemed healthy by the team. Players returning from Tommy John Surgery of who have had issues with Plantar Fasciitis in the past are causes for more concern.

• Bounce-back players: Players coming off a career-worst season can plummet down the draft board from their ranking in the previous season. It's vital to know the reasons for the lack of success. Correctly predicting a bounce-back performance from a once proven veteran can reap significant rewards in terms of fantasy production.

• Breakout players: Accurately forecasting the breakout of a late-round sleeper is the ultimate dream in fantasy sports. It's also one of the toughest things to accomplish in a draft. Analyzing career progression and understanding the role within an MLB team can lead owners to success. These types of picks are best made very late in the draft once a solid team base has been assembled.

• Rookies: Piggy-backing off the last point, drafting and stashing rookies for the early part of the season before their call-up represents either a mid-season injection of top talent or an extremely valuable trade chip once they are called up. Use your last couple bench spots and picks on rookies likely to be promoted early in the season.

Auction Draft

• Player nominations: The most common nomination strategy is to put up a player for bidding you have no interest in actual having on your team. This way you'll force the other owners to spend money while conserving it yourself.
  
  A riskier move is to nominate a player you view as a top sleeper candidate early in the draft. By putting such a player up for bidding early on at a reasonably low starting bid, other owners could act conservative on a lesser known player, allowing you to sneak your sleeper through at way less than market value.

• Jump bids: As bidding for a player slowly climbs, other owners can be scared off by a dramatic increase. If you really like a player up for nomination and bidding is well below the level you feel the player should go for, place a bid of just a few dollars below what you view to be a maximum bid. You speed up the draft, and potentially save a few dollars.

• Bidding up your competition: Anything you know about your competition can be used against them. Know their favorite team or favorite players? Tack a few dollars onto their bid whenever you know they're determined to acquire a player. Of course, it could backfire if they stop bidding, but any dollar amount you can force your competition to waste is a big advantage.