Age is the rage: Previewing the Aussie Open semifinals
Where past eras saw teenagers break through to win majors while vets retired at 28, today's tennis landscape is shaped more by experience than youth.
As the Australian Open hurtles toward its climax, the remaining field is dotted with holdovers from the previous generation. Six of the tournament's eight semifinalists are 30 or older, and four are at least 34. Never in the Open era have so many thirtysomethings played this deep into a major. And what those tricenarians lack in youthful bounce, they more than make up for in pedigree, with 64 Grand Slam titles (!!) between them.
The pull of nostalgia has grown stronger and stronger as the tournament has progressed, and as the possibility of both an all-Williams final and a Federer-Nadal final have become increasingly realistic. It's been nearly nine years since all four of them made the finals at the same Slam. Are we about to see a redux of the legendary 2008 Wimbledon finale?
Let's break down the men's and women's semifinals.
Venus Williams vs. CoCo Vandeweghe
When to watch: Wednesday, 10 p.m. ET
Pity the poor tennis balls that get used for this slugfest.
Venus may be 36 - the oldest major semifinalist in over 20 years - but she can still trade haymakers with anyone on tour. She'll have to be prepared for just that, as Vandeweghe is a powerhouse in her own right who's been breathing fire in Melbourne. The unseeded 25-year-old's last two matches have seen her blast world No. 1 Angelique Kerber and No. 7 Garbine Muguruza off the court in straight sets.
It's the first Slam semi for Vandeweghe, who'd previously made the second week just twice in 24 major main-draw appearances. She's always possessed the raw baseline power and blistering serve, but this is the first time she's been able to consistently pair that pace with precision, patience, and pristine point construction.
Venus hasn't quite hit the level Vandeweghe did in those last two matches, but she hasn't had to. Williams has taken care of business in workmanlike fashion, repeatedly stepping up and pulling out points in big moments while marching through the first five rounds without dropping a set.
This is still likely a better matchup for Venus than someone like Kerber would've been; she's more comfortable fighting fire with fire from the baseline than dealing with variety, unpredictability, and angles. Even so, Venus will need her opponent's level to dip if she's to have a hope of advancing, and the confidence with which Vandeweghe has been playing suggests she'll keep it rolling.
The pick: Vandeweghe in 3 sets
Serena Williams vs. Mirjana Lucic-Baroni
When to watch: Thursday, 12 a.m. ET
We were living in a different millennium the last time these two squared off. Sandwiched between Y2K paranoia, White House scandal, and the introduction of the Euro, Serena beat Lucic-Baroni at Wimbledon in the pair's second head-to-head matchup. On Thursday morning, nearly two decades later, they'll play their third, with a spot in the Aussie Open final on the line.
In between, Lucic-Baroni walked away from her promising career as she fled her abusive father, then returned to professional tennis several years later and slowly worked her way back to prominence. Now here she is, at the age of 34, having knocked off two top-five players en route to her first major semifinal of the 21st century, with one more standing between her and her first-ever Slam final. Unfortunately, that last roadblock happens to be the greatest player of all time, who's vying to both retake the world No. 1 ranking and claim sole possession of the Open-era major title record.
Like the first semifinal, this will be a power-baselining showcase. Armed with explosive one-two punches, Serena and Lucic-Baroni will do their best to hit through each other on the fast hardcourt, and the result will hinge on which player can get into the other's service games. Serena has been returning beautifully, and has won no fewer than 48 percent of her receiving points in her last three matches. Lucic-Baroni should keep it competitive, but expect her incredible run to end here. Serena has looked virtually untouchable.
The pick: Serena in 2 sets
Stan Wawrinka vs. Roger Federer
When to watch: Thursday, 3 a.m. ET
If you were to go purely on past results, Federer would be an easy pick. He's 18-3 lifetime against his Swiss countryman, and 13-0 on hardcourts.
But the vast majority of those results came before Stan Wawrinka turned into STAN WAWRINKA, and in his dominant quarterfinal win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the world No. 4 looked like the now-familiar second-week force that steadily gathers steam and mows down everything in his path. That Wawrinka only gets better as tournaments progress, and to topple him, Federer will have to be every bit as good as he's been the past three rounds.
Federer came into the tournament with questions about his form and fitness following a six-month layoff to rehabilitate a knee injury. He's answered the form question pretty definitively, but the fitness part has yet to really be tested. He went five sets with Kei Nishikori, but preserved his legs by firing 24 aces, ending points quickly (especially on his own serve), and keeping the match moving at a zippy 40-minute-per-set pace. Aside from that it's been smooth sailing; that match was sandwiched between a pair of light 90-minute shootarounds against Tomas Berdych and Mischa Zverev.
Wawrinka figures to pose an entirely different challenge. He's got the firepower to push Federer around from the back of the court, force him to defend sideline to sideline, and make it more difficult to move forward and clip points at the net. This should be a far more physical match than any Federer has played in Melbourne so far, and just absorbing Wawrinka's heavy groundstrokes should be exhausting.
The key for the 35-year-old will be to send a message in the early going, and plant some doubt in his opponent's head. When Wawrinka comes roaring out of the blocks, he's usually a runaway train.
The pick: Wawrinka in 5 sets
Rafael Nadal vs. Grigor Dimitrov
When to watch: Friday, 3 a.m. ET
Speaking of runaway trains, two of them are about to collide in the bottom half.
Nadal has taken his narrow third-round escape and sprinted with it, and the way he ran roughshod over Milos Raonic in the quarterfinals should serve notice that he's close to being all the way back. Among the biggest takeaways from that match: Nadal held the baseline, refused to get bullied or pushed back, and was more assertive than we've seen in some time. Instead of sitting back and waiting for opportunities to land counterpunches, he often struck the first blow, making Raonic pay for protecting his backhand by clocking the ball into the open deuce court and repeatedly forcing Raonic to defend to his forehand side. Nadal was opportunistic when he saw chances to move forward, winning 22-of-25 points at net. He out-winnered his more powerful opponent 40-39, but committed just 21 unforced errors. And he won 83 percent of his first-serve points, while Raonic - who serves as well as anyone on tour - won just 68 percent.
Dimitrov has been equally impressive, albeit against lesser competition. The only player under 30 remaining in the men's draw, the Bulgarian is now 10-0 in 2017, having followed up his impressive Brisbane title with a dominant run to the semis in Melbourne that's included convincing straight-sets wins over top-20 players in Richard Gasquet and David Goffin. He's been moving extremely well and dictating with his forehand, and he's mitigated his weaker backhand by effectively employing the slice. Opponents have struggled to hit around him.
That said, Dimitrov has yet to face anyone in Nadal's class, and he figures to struggle more as the Spaniard extends points, wears him out, and forces him to shrink his margins. Dimitrov's mental toughness has been his undoing in the past, and it's about to be tested in a big way.
The pick: Nadal in 4 sets