5 ways to wager the NFL Conference Championships

Super Bowl Sunday is the biggest sports betting buffet for those football fans with a little more than pride on the line. That would make Championship Sunday, when the NFC and AFC crown their respective winners, the appetizer.

The playoff powers that be have given football bettors two very tasty options: the Atlanta Falcons host the Green Bay Packers in the NFC title game while the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the New England Patriots with the AFC Championship on the line.

Regardless of if you’re an experienced sports bettor or just curious to what the Las Vegas oddsmakers think about these two matchups, here are five ways you can wager on Championship Sunday.

Point spread

The spreads for this year’s championship games are a little more competitive than previous years. While last year’s NFC and AFC Championship games closed with field-goal lines, prior championship games have been pegged with point spreads of a touchdown or more.

With the Falcons as 5-point home favorites and the Patriots giving six points to the visiting Steelers, football fans should be able to enjoy competitive matchups this weekend regardless of if they have money riding on the outcome or not.

All four championship contestants have been solid bets this season, going a combined 41-21-2 against the spread (66 percent), but when it comes to consistently covering the point spread each and every Sunday, no one does that better than Bill Belichick and the Patriots.

New England finished the regular season 13-3 ATS (against the spread) and has cashed in for its betting faithful in six consecutive games going back to Week 11 of the regular season. What’s even more impressive is the fact that the Pats have been an average favorite of almost 10.5 points during that winning streak.

Total

Eye brows across the betting community hit the ceiling when the total opened for the NFC Championship Game. Oddsmakers set the projected number of total points scored between Atlanta and Green Bay – which you can then bet Over or Under that total – at 59.5 points.

That number has since climbed as high as 60.5 with bets coming in on the Over, which is according to Covers' betting database (going back to 1985) the largest betting total for a NFL postseason game… EVER!

If the NFC title game total closes at 60 or above it will eclipses the previous postseason high: a 59.5-point total set for a 2011-12 Wild-Card matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions, which finished 45-28 in favor of the Saints and Over bettors.

There have been 12 NFL betting totals (regular and postseason) of 57.5 points or more going back to 1985, and 10 of those contests have topped the number. This year, the Falcons finished 14-2 Over/Under while the Packers went 10-6 O/U including a 6-0 run for the Over heading into Sunday’s game. These teams rank No. 1 and No. 4 respectively in scoring offense.

Props

Super Bowl is famous for its laundry list of wagering options, from first player to score a touchdown to the color of the Gatorade bath. However, Championship Sunday is packed with prop potential as well.

Two instant heroes from last week’s Divisional Round games hold interesting prop value during Championship Sunday.

For the Patriots, Dion Lewis made the record books scoring a receiving, rushing and return touchdown in New England’s victory over Houston. Lewis is priced at +120 (a $1.20 return for every $1 wagered) to score a touchdown in the AFC Championship, which isn’t all that tempting. But if Lewis scores two TDs versus the Steelers, he’s paying out at +750. Those odds aren’t too bad considering Lewis has multiple ways to find the end zone.

In the NFC Championship, Packers receiver Jared Cook is coming off a huge outing versus Dallas in which he caught six balls for 103 yards and a touchdown, including a 35-yard pass along the sideline to set up the game-winning field goal. Cook has a betting total of 61.5 receiving yards (Over/Under -120) for Sunday’s contest, which seems like asking a lot of the journeyman receiver who had topped that total only twice this season before last Sunday. Cook could, however, get extra touches with top wideout Jordy Nelson's status up in the air (ribs/illness) and fellow WR Davante Adams slowed with an ankle injury, giving value to the Over.

Super Bowl odds

Think you already know who is advancing to the Big Game and which team will party with Lombardi in Houston? Grab what little value is left in the Super Bowl LI futures and put your money where your mouth is.

The Steelers are currently the biggest long shots to win Super Bowl LI, priced at 9/2 (+450) simply because Pittsburgh has to go through Foxborough in order to get to Houston. Ben Roethlisberger & Co. opened among the favorites the win Super Bowl LI last January at 8/1, climbed as high as 20/1 after losing four in a row between Weeks 6 and Week 10, before finishing the regular season on a seven-game hot streak which trimmed that price back to its original spot of +800.

As it stands heading into the weekend, New England is a 5/4 (+125) favorite ahead of Atlanta at 5/2, Green Bay at 4/1 and Pittsburgh at 9/2 odds.

Live in-game betting

Not many people know that you can bet on a game as it happens. In-game wagering has been a very popular market for European bookmakers for decades but has slowly been integrated into the North American industry. Thanks to mobile devices and some changing to regulations in Nevada, most sportsbooks across the Silver State offer live betting on just about all major events.

Odds are constantly changing as the action plays out, which means the spread and total ebb and flow with every possession, and some operators even offer in-game props such as “Will the first play of the drive be a running or passing play?”. One of the best ways to take advantage of in-game wagering is to grab a team at a discount price, which often happens when you get some lopsided scoring or surprising results early into a contest.

Keeping that in mind, the Packers are the only team among the final four that gives up less points in the second half than they do in the first, allowing an average of 12.4 points in the first 30 minutes compared to only 11.6 points in the final two quarters.

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has three fourth-quarter comebacks this season – more than the other three conference contending QBs – and is infamous for his Hail Mary chucks and last-second heroics - as crushed Cowboys fans found out last week. As one Las Vegas oddsmaker said, “It’s hard to give Aaron Rodgers points just knowing that at the end of the game, even if he’s down 10, he’s in striking range to cover the spread.”

Guys with a flare for the dramatic are what live betting is all about this time of year.