Williamson: Why the Steelers have what it takes to stop the Patriots
Matt Williamson is a former scout for the Cleveland Browns, and spent the last 10 years at ESPN as a scout and co-host of "The Football Today Podcast."
The Houston Texans gave the New England Patriots a rough go of it early in their divisional-round contest, but simply didn't have the quarterback play to compete. The Patriots will now host the Pittsburgh Steelers, which is sure to be a much more difficult test.
Can Pittsburgh pull off the upset and advance to Super Bowl LI? Sure they can, this is a very hot team that has won nine in a row. But it's going to take more than six Chris Boswell field goals.
The Steelers have struggled with their kickoff coverage, but, overall, their special teams were highly effective in Kansas City. While the Patriots aren't as strong in this phase as usual and had a big special teams gaffe against the Texans, they're still a threat, and Pittsburgh can't afford any major errors on special teams in the AFC Championship Game.
But there are two main things the Steelers must do to win in New England: Disrupt the Patriots' passing game and sustain offense.
Tom Brady played at an MVP-like pace during the regular season. His performance against an excellent Houston defense wasn't as impressive, as he threw two interceptions (the same amount he threw all year) in that contest, although both went off his receiver's hands. Still, Brady wasn't especially sharp, and Romeo Crennel's defense did a good job of disrupting the timing and rhythm of the Pats' passing game.
So what did Houston do, and can Pittsburgh replicate it? At his age, it's important to get hits on Brady, who held the ball longer against Houston in order to allow routes to develop. He seems to handle punishment worse now than at any point of his career, which adds up. The most effective way to disrupt him is with interior pressure. We saw Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus aligning more in the middle of the field in this game and attacking with A and B Gap pressures. That worked well, and New England's center, David Andrews, had a rough go of it, with Brady being the one feeling the punishment.
Pittsburgh has employed James Harrison and Bud Dupree, often on the second level of the defense, in a similar manner. Stephon Tuitt also could be disruptive on the interior, as could the Steelers' inside linebacker pressures that they have executed very well for many years. Ryan Shazier, meanwhile, closes as well as any linebacker in the league. Pittsburgh, which leads the NFL in sacks since Week 11, has to continue to get interior pressure on the road this Sunday.
The Steelers' defense also needs to disrupt New England's short, timing-based passing game, and they're not as well equipped to pull this off as Houston was. The Texans have three very good cornerbacks, and while Pittsburgh's trio of Ross Cockrell, William Gay, and Artie Burns is a quality group, with Burns consistently improving, they're not a man-to-man unit. The Steelers play more zone coverage than just about any team in the NFL, and, traditionally, Brady has picked that zone scheme apart with a precisely controlled passing game over the years. Still, this unit did suffocate Kansas City's short passing game a week ago.
It should be noted that Brady got better as the game went along, especially as a deep passer. The Steelers are among the best in football at not giving up the deep ball, though. It also has to be noted that Rob Gronkowski isn't a factor, and the Patriots' group of receivers is far less impressive with him sidelined. But don't ignore the threat that Dion Lewis presents. Brady will look to him isolated on Pittsburgh's linebackers in the passing game. Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan also had strong performances against the Texans.
Still, Brady is going to get his. He always does. And with the way Ben Roethlisberger is playing on the road, the Patriots have the quarterbacking advantage.
When the Steelers have the ball, big plays would be great, but it's of the utmost importance that they possess the ball and control the flow of the game. With a now-elite offensive line and the NFL's best running back in Le'Veon Bell, that very well could be what transpires.
The Patriots' defense allowed the fewest points during the regular season by a substantial margin. While this is certainly a quality unit, that statistic is somewhat misleading. Because Brady turned the ball over so infrequently, New England's defense rarely began drives in compromising positions on the field. Also, the slate of offenses the Patriots faced during the regular season (and last week, for that matter) were very unthreatening overall.
Pittsburgh's dangerous quarterback, and elite offensive line, running back, and wide receiver should pose a much more difficult challenge. The Patriots likely will put Malcolm Butler on Antonio Brown for much of this contest, and that should be a fantastic individual matchup, but the Steelers' offensive line has the advantage in the trenches in the running game as well as in pass protection. The difference needs to be Bell, who could lead this team to a Super Bowl berth.