UFC Denver predictions: Pena, Shevchenko vie for title shot

Prior to UFC on FOX 23 in Denver on Saturday, theScore's Themistoklis Alexis and Alexander K. Lee give their predictions on the evening's most noteworthy bouts.

Main Card

Women's Bantamweight Bout

Valentina Shevchenko (2-1 UFC, 13-2)
vs.
Julianna Pena (4-0 UFC, 8-2)

Alexander K. Lee: At last, Julianna Pena gets to show what she's worth.

Even if one disagrees with Pena's elevated opinion of where she stands in the women's bantamweight hierarchy, there's no denying that she's an extraordinary talent who is coming off of a career-best win over former title challenger Cat Zingano.

Pena's mission is to take Valentina Shevchenko down, neutralize the deadly striking of "The Bullet," and work her over with ground-and-pound. Shevchenko is no slouch herself in the grappling department, so Pena is going to have to be persistent and not get frustrated if the takedown doesn't come right away.

If Pena shows the same tenacity that she did in the Zingano fight, she could be headed to her fifth straight win.

THE PICK: Pena

Themistoklis Alexis: Pena's months-long, petulant campaign for a title shot will have gone for naught once she steps into the Octagon with Shevchenko.

"The Venezuelan Vixen" thrives on the ground, but she's only taken the fight there against opponents willing to clinch with her, so expect the Kyrgyz fighter to control the striking range, elude Pena's clutches, and pick her apart in a replay of a masterful performance against Holly Holm from this past summer. Shevchenko isn't one to put her foes away early, and should ride her volume striking to a sweep of the scorecards.

THE PICK: Shevchenko

Welterweight Bout

Donald Cerrone (19-4 UFC, 32-7)
vs.
Jorge Masvidal (8-4 UFC, 31-11)

Alexis: Jorge Masvidal has rebounded from his loss to Lorenz Larkin with a vengeance, and Donald Cerrone is about to catch the brunt of it.

"Gamebred" ditched his typically cagey ways in back-to-back victories over Ross Pearson and Jake Ellenberger, which bodes well for Saturday's matchup, as he'll have to draw first blood if he wants to get past a lethal kickboxer in Cerrone. Look for Masvidal to tune "Cowboy" up on the feet from range and sporadically resort to his underrated wrestling before dialing up the aggression for a late knockout.

THE PICK: Masvidal

Lee: The 33-year-old Cerrone used to have a bad reputation for slow starts and he showed glimpses of that old form in his last fight against Matt Brown. Fortunately, Cerrone picked up the pace in the later rounds of that bout before nailing Brown with a thudding head kick to win the fight.

He can't afford to let Masvidal get off first, so he better be at his sharpest in Round 1. Gamebred is nearly impossible to finish and it's going to take everything Cerrone has to eke out a decision.

THE PICK: Cerrone

Heavyweight Bout

Andrei Arlovski (14-7 UFC, 25-13)
vs.
Francis Ngannou (4-0 UFC, 9-1)

Lee: What did Andrei Arlovski do to deserve this booking?

A former UFC champion, Arlovski certainly has the skills and the mentality needed to overcome a physical specimen like Francis Ngannou. Unfortunately, he also has years of wear and tear on him and he's suffered some of the worst knockouts in heavyweight history. All it will take is one good shot from Ngannou to put Arlovski down and the smart money says he lands it.

THE PICK: Ngannou

Alexis: A loser of three straight, Arlovski finds himself on thin ice heading into Saturday's event, and Ngannou is just the man to sink him.

The 30-year-old Frenchman's fight reel conjures flashbacks of the Arlovski that reigned over the UFC's heavyweight division with an iron right hand over a decade ago. The former champ's chin has been considerably tarnished by nine career knockout losses, so expect "The Predator" to extend his stoppage streak to nine in short order.

THE PICK: Ngannou

Featherweight Bout

Alex Caceres (7-7 UFC, 12-9)
vs.
Jason Knight (2-1 UFC, 15-2)

Alexis: There's a reason Jason Knight has been affectionately dubbed "Hick Diaz."

The 24-year-old Knight is always down to scrap, while the unpredictable Alex Caceres likes to throw everything short of the kitchen sink at his opponents, a habit that's yielded as many impressive victories as it has head-scratchers. Look for the Mississippi native to test the length and unorthodox striking of "Bruce Leeroy" just enough to set up a takedown before finishing him on the ground, where Caceres has suffered five of nine career losses.

THE PICK: Knight

Lee: Caceres seems to be forever stuck in second gear and that's not where a fighter wants to be when he has a rabid Knight bearing down on him. "The Kid" is searching for a signature win and he could find it on Saturday if he gets the nod over Caceres, a veteran of 14 UFC bouts.

The name of the game for Knight is pressure, something Caceres hasn't had the most success dealing with in the past. The Octagon experience of Caceres could give him an advantage, but Knight had plenty of fights on the regional scene before joining the UFC.

Even if he doesn't get his first UFC finish, Knight should pick up the W here.

THE PICK: Knight

Preliminairies

Bantamweight Bout

Raphael Assuncao (7-2 UFC, 23-5)
vs.
Aljamain Sterling (4-1 UFC, 12-1)

Lee: It's easy to forget that before Raphael Assuncao had a seven-fight win streak snapped by TJ Dillashaw, he was the rightful No. 1 contender to the bantamweight title.

That loss was preceded by a series of injuries that kept Assuncao out of action for almost two years and he has to be hungry to get back on the winning track. As impressive as Sterling can be on the mat, Assuncao is simply the more well-rounded fighter and that will become evident over the course of this 15-minute fight.

THE PICK: Assuncao

Alexis: Losing to Bryan Caraway might be the best thing that ever happened to the "Funk Master."

Sterling had been touted as a title challenger in the making prior to his first career defeat, and expect nothing less than a matured fighter to show up against the crafty and versatile Assuncao. The 27-year-old may lack the technical proficiency to match the Brazilian strike for strike or trap him in a submission, but he has a wrestling background and freaky athleticism on his side.

Look for Sterling to neutralize Assuncao's kickboxing with takedowns and ground-and-pound or make it an ugly affair by wearing him down against the cage for a unanimous decision.

THE PICK: Sterling