Ryan all but certain to win MVP after All-Pro nod
While it's yet to be announced, Matt Ryan's selection to The Associated Press' All-Pro team means he should be pretty confident that he'll be adding the MVP award to his trophy cabinet.
The Atlanta Falcons quarterback is believed to be the front-runner for the award. However, the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Ezekiel Elliott are also in the conversation, in what is the most unclear MVP race in recent memory.
But history indicates that, with the All-Pro nod, Ryan is almost guaranteed to win the award. In the past 10 seasons, the player who was named the league's MVP was also the first-team selection at their position:
| Season | MVP winner | 1st team All-Pro selection at MVP position |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Cam Newton | Cam Newton |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers | Aaron Rodgers |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | Peyton Manning |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson | Adrian Peterson/Marshawn Lynch |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers | Aaron Rodgers |
| 2010 | Tom Brady | Tom Brady |
| 2009 | Peyton Manning | Peyton Manning |
| 2008 | Peyton Manning | Peyton Manning |
| 2007 | Tom Brady | Tom Brady |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | LaDainian Tomlinson/Larry Johnson |
The MVP is decided by the same 50 voters that pick the All-Pro team, and not only did Ryan beat out his fellow quarterbacks, his lead in votes was substantial.
Matt Ryan got 29 All-Pro votes, Tom Brady 15, Aaron Rodgers 5, Derek Carr 1.
— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) January 6, 2017
Because of that, it's highly unlikely a quarterback that isn't Ryan can win the award.
Therefore, Elliott probably remains Ryan's lone competition, though the latter's positional value should keep the Dallas Cowboys' rookie at bay. Only four times has a running back won MVP since the turn of the century.