Don't get too attached to your school's new top-ranked QB commit
While it's fair for fans across the country to celebrate their school landing a top quarterback recruit on Wednesday's national signing day, it's important not to get too attached, because stats show there's a good chance he won't be around long.
As Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports notes, exactly half of the top 50 quarterbacks from 2011-14 (100 out of 200) ended up transferring from the original school they signed with.
Top quarterbacks are used to being the stars of their respective high school teams, and the shock of becoming a bench player in college is often too much for them to handle. A mass exodus can often occur, leaving a program in limbo as the supposed "quarterback of the future" plies his trade with a different outfit.
Here's a look at where the top-eight quarterback recruits from 2013-15 ended up.
2015 dual-threat quarterbacks:
| Rank | Name | Committed to | Transfer to |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyler Murray | Texas A&M | Oklahoma |
| 2 | Jarrett Stidham | Baylor | Auburn |
| 3 | Deondre Francois | Florida State | N/A |
| 4 | Brandon Wimbush | Notre Dame | N/A |
| 5 | Dwayne Lawson | Virginia Tech | Illinois |
| 6 | Sheriron Jones | Tennessee | N/A |
| 7 | De'Andre Johnson | Florida State | Florida Atlantic |
| 8 | Travis Jonsen | Oregon | N/A |
Notables:
Kyler Murray saw action in eight games during his true freshman season at Texas A&M in 2015, throwing for 686 yards with five touchdowns and rushing for 335 yards and one score. He decided to leave the Aggies program in December of 2015, joining fellow top-ranked quarterback recruit Kyle Allen in transferring within a week of one another. He ended up at Oklahoma where he will likely be the backup to Baker Mayfield this season.
Jarrett Stidham also saw time in his true freshman season at Baylor after starter Seth Russell was lost for the season with injury. He appeared in 10 games during that campaign, finishing with 1,265 yards passing and 12 touchdowns. He heads into the 2017 campaign as the likely starter at Auburn.
2015 pocket-passing quarterbacks:
| Rank | Name | Committed to | Transfer to |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blake Barnett | Alabama | Arizona State |
| 2 | Josh Rosen | UCLA | N/A |
| 3 | John Kolar | Oklahoma State | N/A |
| 4 | Brady White | Arizona State | N/A |
| 5 | Jake Browning | Washington | N/A |
| 6 | Drew Lock | Missouri | N/A |
| 7 | Kyle Shurmur | Vanderbilt | N/A |
| 8 | Sam Darnold | USC | N/A |
Notables:
Blake Barnett didn't see any time in his first season with Alabama, as the Crimson Tide won the national title with Jacob Coker under center, but entered the 2016 season as the starting quarterback. He barely made it through the first series of the season opener against USC, as true freshman Jalen Hurts took over and led Nick Saban's outfit to the SEC championship and a berth in the national championship game. He transferred to junior college and is now at Arizona State.
2014 dual-threat quarterbacks:
| Rank | Name | Committed to | Transfer to |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deshaun Watson | Clemson | N/A |
| 2 | Brandon Harris | LSU | N/A |
| 3 | Will Grier | Florida | West Virginia |
| 4 | Jacob Park | Georgia | Iowa State |
| 5 | Justice Hansen | Oklahoma | Arkansas State |
| 6 | Jerrod Heard | Texas | N/A |
| 7 | Treon Harris | Florida | Tennessee State |
| 8 | Reggie Bonnafon | Louisville | N/A |
Notables:
Will Grier showed during his brief tenure at Florida that he can be a dominant college quarterback, leading the Gators to a 6-0 record as starter, throwing for 1,204 yards and 10 touchdowns in the process. The 6-foot-1, 212-pounder would then be hit with a year-long drug suspension and transfer to West Virginia. After serving the remaining six games of his suspension, Grier figures to star in Dana Holgorsen and Jake Spavital's offense this season.
2014 pocket-passing quarterbacks:
| Rank | Name | Committed to | Transfer to |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Allen | Texas A&M | Houston |
| 2 | Sean White | Auburn | N/A |
| 3 | Keller Chryst | Stanford | N/A |
| 4 | David Cornwell | Alabama | Nevada |
| 5 | Brad Kaaya | Miami | N/A |
| 6 | Michael O'Connor | Penn State | British Columbia |
| 7 | Clayton Thorson | Northwestern | N/A |
| 8 | Mason Rudolph | Oklahoma State | N/A |
Notables:
As mentioned above, Allen joined Murray in transferring from Texas A&M in the span of one week at the end of the 2015 season. The No. 1 quarterback in the 2014 recruiting class saw extended time with the Aggies, throwing for 3,532 yards and 33 touchdowns in two seasons. After leaving the SEC program, Allen landed at Houston, and after sitting out last season, is primed for some big numbers in Major Applewhite's offensive system.
2013 dual-threat quarterbacks:
| Rank | Name | Committed to | Transfer to |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asiantii Woulard | UCLA | South Florida |
| 2 | Matt Alviti | Northwestern | N/A |
| 3 | Troy Williams | Washington | Utah |
| 4 | Joshua Dobbs | Tennessee | N/A |
| 5 | Chris Johnson | Baylor | Houston |
| 6 | Malik Zaire | Notre Dame | Choosing school |
| 7 | Mitch Trubisky | North Carolina | N/A |
| 8 | Anthony Jennings | LSU | UL-Lafayette |
Notables:
What might have been if Malik Zaire never suffered a season-ending injury against Virginia in 2015? The Ohio native threw for 313 yards and three touchdowns in Notre Dame's season-opening win over Texas, and had 115 yards and a score against the Cavaliers before going down. DeShone Kizer would takeover and immediately show his potential, seizing the starting position. Zaire is now heading somewhere as a graduate transfer for next season, but has yet to determine which school will be his new home.
2013 pocket-passing quarterbacks:
| Rank | Name | Committed to | Transfer to |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Hackenberg | Penn State | N/A |
| 2 | Max Browne | USC | Pitt |
| 3 | Cooper Bateman | Alabama | Utah |
| 4 | Ryan Burns | Stanford | N/A |
| 5 | Kevin Olsen | Miami | Charlotte |
| 6 | Kohl Stewart | Texas A&M | Playing baseball |
| 7 | Brice Ramsey | Georgia | N/A |
| 8 | Shane Morris | Michigan | Central Michigan |
Notables:
Max Browne waited behind Cody Kessler for two seasons at USC before taking over as starter to begin the 2016 campaign. After the Trojans posted a disappointing 1-2 mark to begin the year, Browne was yanked in favor of Sam Darnold and USC took off, winning nine of its last 10 games. The 6-foot-5, 220-pounder then announced he would be pursuing a graduate transfer, and should be the starter for Pitt in 2017.