Three offenses to avoid in daily fantasy at the start of the season
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New personnel, new coaches, and new offensive systems take time to jell. A combination of these can be especially difficult as players iron out the kinks and establish their roles. This feeling out process is particularly dangerous for a player's early-season fantasy value as these overarching changes can significantly impact on any player's statistical production.
Below are three teams that can be expected to struggle offensively out of the gate because of such changes. Those playing daily fantasy should be wary of drafting players from this trio of teams during the early portion of the season as last year's production fails to reflect their current situation.
Indiana Pacers
Last season, Paul George ran the show in Indiana. A year after his catastrophic leg injury, George came back to lead Indiana in points, steals, and field goal attempts, while ranking second in rebounds. This production was buoyed by a usage rate of 30.4 percent - also first on the team.
But with the off-season acquisitions of PG Jeff Teague and PF Thaddeus Young and the emergence of C Myles Turner, George's dominance is going to take a hit. As these options figure out how to work together, the Pacers style of play and production will be difficult to predict on a nightly basis.
Indiana's preseason performance has already revealed the negative impact its well-balanced lineup can have on the starting corps. The results are especially concerning for George, who could turn into an early-season trap play in daily formats.
| NAME | MPG | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. George | 26.5 | 13 | 4.8 | 1.8 |
| M. Ellis | 24.6 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 4 |
| J. Teague | 26.6 | 13 | 3 | 4.3 |
| T. Young | 25.6 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2 |
| M.Turner | 27.3 | 12 | 6.8 | 1.3 |
New head coach Nate McMillan should also be a cause for fantasy concern. The former Pacer assistant will likely maintain the methodical style that Indiana has established over recent years. Despite an increase in their pace of play last season, Indiana still finished in the bottom-half of points per game for the fourth year in a row.
Though the real world Pacers are better served by this balanced attack, fantasy owners are likely to be disappointed. Balanced scoring often means a handful of options that can contribute big nights, and an overall reduction in scoring for every option across the board. Avoid Indiana early on as its revamped starting lineup could have a drastic impact on each player's value.
Chicago Bulls
Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson are the only remaining starters from last season. Secondary names like Doug McDermott, Nikola Mirotic, and Bobby Portis offer some stability off the bench, but the 2016-17 Chicago Bulls are a more-or-less a completely different team from last season.
PG Rajon Rondo and SG Dwyane Wade form a strong backcourt on paper, but Chicago's poor shooting could cause major issues for the offense. Wade had the worst shooting year of his career last season, shooting 45.6 percent from the floor and just 15.9 percent from beyond the arc. In combination with Butler, another poor 3-point shooter, Rondo will have little to no kickout ability.
With few starting options that can shoot the three, the paint will be especially crowded for the middling offensive options of Gibson and C Robin Lopez. Both struggle to post 10 points or more on a nightly basis and will now have to adjust to Rondo's unique passing abilities.
Considering all of these factors, head coach Fred Hoiberg has a tall task ahead of him. How he provides five mid-range scorers adequate opportunity is difficult to envision.
New York Knicks
A completely new backcourt and a swap of messy-haired centers are the big changes in the Big Apple. PGs Derrick Rose and Brandon Jennings will need to establish a rapport with a still capable Carmelo Anthony and find a way to involve dynamic PF Kristaps Porzingis.
However, the biggest detractor from this group's productivity at the start of the season will undoubtedly be the lack of playing time together. Rose's recent legal troubles afforded him just 24 minutes of preseason actionand should result in Jennings playing increased minutes to open the season. Daily fantasy players must tread carefully with Rose early.
Rose's absence will also cause issues for head coach Jeff Hornacek, who is expected to increase New York's pace of play from just 95.8 possessions per game last season. With minimal preseason action, Rose and Hornacek will need time to iron out the functionality of an offense that wants to move faster and implement the triangle when appropriate.