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5 fantasy football stars due for positive touchdown regression

Mike DiNovo / USA TODAY Sports

Players fail to find the end zone for all kinds of reasons. Sometimes it's because of their usage and ability, and sometimes it's just bad luck.

Amari Cooper might be the 2016 prototype of poor touchdown luck with just one score to date. He ranks fourth in receiving yards (585), is tied for third in 20-plus-yard catches (10) and is tied for 11th in yards after the catch (183).

The volume in the passing game and skill to break big plays is there, and the touchdowns will come, especially if Cooper begins to see more looks near the goal line. He has just four red-zone targets thus far.

Here are five more players with upside to start rewarding fantasy owners even more through an uptick in scores.

QB Andy Dalton, Bengals

Cincinnati ranks 28th in red-zone efficiency, and Dalton has just six passing touchdowns through six games. Everyone screamed negative regression following his 25-TD campaign through 13 games last year, but the pendulum has swung too far. And while Tyler Eifert's continued absence is a concern going forward, Dalton has Cleveland and Washington on deck before the bye.

Cleveland is the second-friendliest matchup for fantasy quarterbacks, and Washington has been gashed on the ground which should help Dalton continue his strong fantasy production of late - he's coming off consecutive top-12 finishes. And impressively, despite throwing just six touchdowns, he's been a top-10 quarterback thus far.

He also has 14 rushing scores dating back to the 2012 season, so there is potential for sneaky scoring boosts on the ground, too.

RB Mark Ingram, Saints

With just 11 rushing attempts inside the 20 this year, Ingram's single ground score isn't surprising. Last year, the back garnered 31 red-zone totes and scored six times. The gap between the two seasons should lessen sooner than later, even with TD vulture John Kuhn in the picture.

Another concern is New Orleans' 80 percent touchdown efficiency in the red zone this year, which is tied for best in the league. However, it's unlikely the Saints become complacent with their offense, and scheming to get the ball into Ingram's hands more near the end zone more wouldn't be shocking.

All said, there are a couple factors likely to limit Ingram's overall touchdown upside, but he has found the end zone in two of his past three games, which is a trend that should continue in New Orleans' high-octane offense.

WR Alshon Jeffery, Bears

A no-brainer inclusion, Jeffery hasn't scored this season despite 487 receiving yards and eight 20-yard receptions. Chicago also has the fourth-most passing yards per game (284) but just a 20th-ranked seven passing scores. Worst of all, though, is that Jeffery has received just four red-zone targets thus far.

However, it's not all doom and gloom. Ahead, Jeffery has a single daunting matchup - Minnesota in Week 8 - and a pile of cushy opponents on deck. Green Bay (twice), Tampa Bay and Detroit are four dreamy setups, and the Giants, Titans, 49ers and Redskins are hardly avoidable tests.

Jeffery is lining up for a potential league-winning finish, and it would be inconceivable for his red-zone looks not to skyrocket. He also has 12 career touchdowns from outside the red zone, so the big plays should come, too.

WR Tavon Austin, Rams

After scoring nine touchdowns last year, Austin has just one score through six games to start 2016, and he most recently laid an egg in a dreamy matchup against the Lions in Week 6. However, the fourth-year Rams receiver has seen five red-zone targets already this season after garnering just 10 looks in the red zone all of last year.

Additionally, Austin owns the ability for game-breaking scores and has compiled 90 yards after the catch despite rarely being utilized as a down-field threat. While Austin will likely need to rely on a few gimmick plays to make a fantasy impact, he has remained involved in the passing game (a team-high 50 targets) enough to be started in most PPR settings.

An uptick in touchdown production could land him on the fantasy radar in standard leagues, too.

TE Jimmy Graham, Seahawks

While the former superstar - and touchdown machine - has already exceeded all expectations this year and sits as the eight-best tight end, there is still potential for more. Graham has received just 11 red-zone targets through 16 games as a Seahawk. And as a matchup nightmare, it would be surprising if his number wasn't called more frequently inside the 20 going forward.

Running backs have also scored all five of Seattle's red-zone touchdowns the past two games. Diversifying their offense close to the goal line is likely, and head coach Pete Carroll has a track record of getting the most out of his offensive weapons.

It's also worth noting, Graham's bye week is already in the rear-view mirror, so you're looking at a set-and-forget option at tight end going through the end of the season.

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