Debate Team: Is there still fantasy value in Jacksonville?
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Each week, two of theScore's fantasy expert discuss an intriguing fantasy topic in debate form. This week looks at the disappointing Jacksonville Jaguars, who had six players among the top 100 in FantasyPros' pre-season consensus rankings. Can the team's stars redeem themselves the rest of the way, or should owners be looking to cut bait?
Ken Conrad: Other than perhaps WR Allen Hurns, it's safe to say that every fantasy-relevant Jaguar has underwhelmed relative to expectations this season.
QB Blake Bortles has thrown eight touchdowns to seven interceptions, topping 300 yards twice in five games. T.J. Yeldon (3.3 yards per carry) and Chris Ivory (2.4) have formed an ineffective running back platoon, while TE Julius Thomas has failed to recapture his old Denver form, recording a 13-176-1 receiving line through four games (he missed one due to injury).
The highest-drafted Jaguar, WR Allen Robinson, has three TDs but has been outgained (300 to 287) by Hurns. He's the 30th-ranked receiver in standard scoring formats, and it doesn't look like he'll come close to matching last season's 1,400 yards and 14 TDs.
With several difficult matchups on the upcoming schedule, I don't have much faith that the team's offensive assets will be able to turn it around.
Jason Wilson: The difficult matchups are actually encouraging in terms of the Jaguars' collective fantasy upside. The Jaguars offense was valuable in 2015 because it was playing from behind so often, forcing Bortles to air it out. As we inch toward mid-season, it's pretty clear the running game is not working and the defense, while halting yardage, has given up 25.4 points per game.
Should the defense continue to allow points, the Jaguars should be set to embrace the gunslinger within Bortles that led to him emerging as a top fantasy performer in 2015. Robinson's struggles don't worry me at all. His yardage and TDs may be below expectations, but he's still getting more targets than any of his peers on average.
Hurns has bucked the prevailing wisdom that he would be a bust by doing exactly what we should have expected: bigger plays. Hurns hasn't hit paydirt as often as I'd like, but it's coming. He outpaced Robinson in Week 6 with a team-leading 11 targets, catching five for 74 yards. The passing game may be stumbling a bit, but the scoring will come with patience.
Conrad: Garbage time was certainly valuable to Bortles and the receivers in 2015, but I'm not sure these upcoming matchups are conducive to the Jaguars having to play from behind. Other than Oakland, Detroit and Indianapolis, the rest of the teams that Jacksonville will face rank in the top half of the league in pass defense.
Denver (Week 13), Houston (Weeks 10 and 15) and Minnesota (Week 14) all rank within the top six, and have allowed a collective 12 TD passes in 17 games. None of those offenses are potent enough to bury the Jaguars with an avalanche of points, so those games mostly look like low-scoring slogs.
Admittedly a lot can change over the season's second half, but if Bortles, Robinson and Co. can take advantage of Oakland's 32nd-ranked pass defense in Week 7, I'd be looking to sell high.
Wilson: If the price is right, sell, but I hold that no player is completely untouchable. I'm still not giving up on Robinson reaching his potential, even against top opponents. The teams you mentioned are worrisome, but Robinson had 86 and 108 yards, respectively, in two games against Houston a year ago and it's arguable the Texans' defense was better then.
Hurns is a bit of a wild card, but he can come in handy as a risky tournament flier in daily fantasy. Even with a less than ideal schedule, Hurns will still be targeted. Maybe the Jaguars won't reach the heights of 2015, but that doesn't mean they need to be written off entirely. There is still value to be had, and the days of selling high are over. The time to buy low is upon us.
Despite the turnovers, Bortles is actually completing passes at a better rate. In the team's last two games, both wins, Bortles has thrown three TDs compared to one interception. The yardage isn't there, but he hasn't been making the big mistakes that defined the ugly side of his play last season and in the first three games of 2016. Writing him off is far too premature.
Conrad: I generally preach patience above rashly opting to sell, but it's at least time to alter expectations. Bortles was drafted as a borderline starting QB in 10-team formats, but has posted QB2 numbers thus far. He's the 18th-ranked quarterback in standard scoring formats (though he'd be higher if he hadn't already had his bye week), so chances are any Bortles drafter isn't still trotting him out there as an every-week starter.
Robinson is still in just his third season, so it's possible he was slightly overvalued for fantasy purposes after last year's breakout. The oft-injured Marqise Lee has actually eaten into Robinson's production with a 22-230-0 receiving line. Last season, no wide receiver aside from Hurns and Robinson had more than 32 catches, a pace which a healthy Lee should easily surpass.
It's only five games into the season, but it's easy to be underwhelmed by both the Jaguars' real-life and fantasy performances. With Ivory the only new face, it's been surprising that the offense hasn't been able to build on last year's success.
Wilson: True, and the true struggle lies in deciding when that underwhelmed feeling means you should sell or if you should stand pat. Wait too long and your season could be up in smoke. The passing game should absolutely get stronger and the emergence of Lee is a good thing, as he has brought himself into the realm of being an inexpensive streaming option.
The running game concerns me, but if there is a player I expect to improve and return decent value on a game-to-game basis, it's Ivory. His usage has been limited, but prior to this season he had never averaged fewer than 4.1 yards per attempt. He can't be as bad as the 2.4 yards he's averaged in three games this season. Against the Raiders in Week 7, he should be on everyone's radar.
The question is if there remains any value in Jacksonville, and the answer is yes, but it is a bit of a pivot from where they sat as a projected fantasy powerhouse in many optimists' eyes in August. Yeldon looks like a bust, and it's difficult to decipher which WR will succeed in a given week. Still, owners of Robinson, Bortles, and Ivory need to keep the faith. A breakout is on the way.