5 reasons why Todd Gurley is the worst player to own in fantasy
This might seem like a cruel understatement to Todd Gurley owners, but it's safe to say you probably regret making him your first pick in fantasy drafts.
It isn't only that Gurley has failed to come close to returning first-round value - he's only the fourth-best starting running back in his own division, at least where standard fantasy scoring is concerned:
| RANK | NAME | TEAM | POINTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Johnson | ARI | 123 |
| 2 | Carlos Hyde | SF | 80 |
| 3 | Christine Michael | SEA | 67 |
| 4 | Todd Gurley | LA | 59 |
Gurley is far and away the worst player to own in fantasy football through the first six weeks of the season - and here are five compelling reasons why:
Overwhelming underperformance
The numbers aren't flattering. Gurley is averaging a pedestrian 2.9 yards per carry on the season; that's the lowest YPC rate of any player with at least 42 rushes on the season. His long rush of 16 yards is shorter than that of 75 other players; 13 quarterbacks have had a longer run so far this season, as has little-used teammate Benny Cunningham.
Gurley's struggles aren't limited to 2016, either; over his last 14 regular-season games, Gurley has 254 carries for a stunningly ineffective 877 yards (3.45 YPC), with just one game over 90 yards in that span - and six games of fewer than 50 yards over that stretch. Despite seeing one of the largest workloads in the league, Gurley hasn't been able to do much of anything.
Receiving game invisibility
All running backs have their struggles - even elite options. But what will often save their fantasy values is a prominent role in the passing game. David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell are two examples of running backs who might not light the ground on fire, but usually see enough targets - particularly against stout run defenses - to establish high fantasy floors.
Fantasy owners are no doubt encouraged by Gurley's growing role in that regard, but with just 16 catches in 13 games prior to his recent three-game run, it's no guarantee this recent hot streak will continue. Cunningham has been head coach Jeff Fisher's preferred third- and passing-down option, and now that he's healthy, he should cut into Gurley's targets.
A less-than-friendly schedule
Gurley can look to a difficult schedule as one of the main reasons for his early-season struggles; Seattle, Tampa Bay and Buffalo all allow fewer than four yards per carry on the season. But duds against Arizona (4.0 YPC), Detroit (4.7) and San Francisco (5.0) are inexcusable - and though he'll see a few cake matchups the rest of the way, Gurley's remaining sked isn't easy.
After facing an impressive Giants' run defense in Week 7, Gurley gets a Week 8 bye. He'll then play five of his final eight games against teams ranked in the top-12 in fantasy points allowed to running backs, including brutal road dates in New England and Seattle. Gurley might break out a time or two the rest of the way, but don't bank on sustained success from here on out.
You can't trade him ...
Those who invested a top-5 pick on Gurley may have been loath to give up on him after a few bad weeks. That has likely proven to be a colossal mistake, as his value has plummeted to the point where you would be lucky to get 50 cents on the dollar for him. The majority of fantasy owners cringe at the idea of selling an asset so low, and are likely looking for more in trade.
The problem is, nobody thinks that Gurley is worth much more than that. Anyone willing to take a chance on him is only considering it because the perception is that he can be had at a major discount. If you're not willing to provide that, you're going to be stuck with him. And nobody wants to be the one to sell low on Gurley and then watch him go off in the second half.
... and you can't cut him
It's one thing to have a devalued mid- or late-round asset taking up room on your roster; you simply cut ties and move on. But you can't cut a 300-carry running back for any good reason - particularly with so few of those kinds of players kicking around. If you own Gurley and you can't trade him, you have only two options - play him or bench him.
If you were fortunate enough to land solid running back value in later rounds - say, Melvin Gordon and Jordan Howard - then you could easily consider playing both ahead of Gurley in a given week. But most fantasy owners don't have that luxury, which means rostering Gurley for better or worse. And if the first six weeks are any indication, it's almost always for worse.