When to trust/fade a hot streak
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In order to know when to trust or fade a hot streak, advanced statistics must be used. One of the best resources is Corsica.Hockey. Here are the best stats to help determine whether a hot streak is bound to last or not:
Primary/Secondary Assists
If a player is riding a hot streak consisting primarily of assists, it's very important to see whether they are primary assists or secondary assists.
If they are indeed primary assists, then it likely means this player is doing a great job of setting up his teammates for goals. If the majority of his points have come via secondary assists, then it indicates there was some luck involved along the way. Not to say every secondary assist is lucky but assists leading directly to goals are much easier to predict from game-to-game.
High-Danger Shots Against (HDSA)
If a sniper, such as Nashville Predators W James Neal, for example, has scored six goals in his last eight games he would surely be a hot commodity in DFS for his next game. Although, for someone like Neal who relies so much on his shot, you need to look at more than just goals against per game when judging his next opponent.
If a team allows a high amount of high-danger shots, then there's a good chance Neal will find twine once again. If you give a player with a shot like his enough chances in the slot, he will eventually capitalize.
On the flip side, if a team is good at limiting the amount of high-danger shots, then it might be a wise idea to fade Neal.
Rebounds Against (RBA)
There are certain players, usually power forwards, who score most of their goals by being a tough net-front presence. Edmonton Oilers LW Milan Lucic comes to mind. Though he isn't a power forward by definition, Toronto Maple Leafs RW Leo Komarov also comes to mind.
These players make a living off scoring goals right around the crease. Detroit Red Wings alumnus Tomas Holmstrom was perhaps the best at this.
A great way to attempt to predict if a hot streak will continue for players who rely on garbage goals is to look at rebounds against by goaltenders. If a goaltender allows plenty of rebounds, then there is a strong possibility a net-front presence like Lucic or Komarov will be able to keep their hot streak alive.
Scoring Chances For (SCF)
NHL team's only averaged 2.71 goals per game last season. With 18 skaters on a team, it can be tough to predict which players will be the ones to score. Obviously some players are more likely than others, but in general it is very tough to predict.
A good way to attempt to predict if a hot streak will continue or not is to look at scoring chances. If a player is converting all of his chances, then it likely won't continue. Nobody can score on every single one of their scoring chances for a considerable period of time.
If this player is constantly putting himself in a good position to score and only capitalizing on an average number of chances then there is a high probability the hot streak will proceed. Getting into good positions to score is something a player can control more often compared to whether a goalie comes up with a big save or not.