Why you shouldn't pay for a mid-tier defenseman in daily fantasy
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Paying Up
In the 2015-16 NHL season, four defensemen ranked among the top 35 points leaders. Ottawa Senators D Erik Karlsson led the way, scoring 82 points in 82 games - good for a T4 finish in the race for the Art Ross Trophy.
Because of this, Karlsson and his closest peers are often priced among the top skaters on any given slate when they play. High point production is accompanied by high shots on goal and blocked shots totals, which are direct results of playing time.
The highest-priced defensemen generally rank among the league leaders in power-play time. The added potential for some easy points can also factor into higher salaries. Needless to say, defenseman pricing is extremely accurate and reflective of actual potential for DFS scoring.
Similarly, the average for "fantasy Points allowed" by team to individual positions is most accurate for defensemen, as defenders require specific defensive schemes; wingers and forwards are defended in similar fashions.
Paying Down
Philadelphia Flyers D Shayne Gostisbehere was one of the top stories of the 2015-16 season. He burst onto the scene as a 22-year-old, who had been selected 78th overall by the Flyers in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. He finished his rookie season with 46 points in 64 games. Here's a look at his month-by-month breakdown:
| Month | GP | Goals | Assists | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November | 8 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| December | 12 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| January | 9 | 2 | 6 | 26 |
| February | 15 | 4 | 9 | 32 |
| March | 14 | 4 | 3 | 41 |
| April | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
His average time on ice increased from 18:24 in November to 21:40 by season's end. Despite his immediate success and high levels of production, he remained a consistent bargain on the majority of DFS sites.
After entering the league as a relative unknown and joining a disappointing offense in Philadelphia, it took a while for public opinion to warm up to Gostisbehere. Exploiting inefficiencies like this is an excellent tactic. Once sites and public opinion finally caught up to Gostisbehere, he soared to the top of the pricing tier. He remained a safe play.
Look at stats such as Offensive Zone Start and Finish Percentage, available on BehindTheNet.ca, as indicators of how a young, offensively-minded defenseman is being used. Keep track of shots on goal as well as power-play time. Production is inherently tied to player usage.
Some cheap bottom-tier defensemen will be the defensive-minded partner to an offensive star. These players can typically rack up enough blocked shots and SOGs in large amounts of ice time to return cash-game worthy value, while the occasional point can make them an option in GPPs.
Stacking an offensive leader from the back end with his bargain-priced partner can be an effective tournament strategy in the event that the two combine on multiple goals.
Fading the Middle Tier
The middle pricing tier for any position is often cyclical, with players rotating up and down through the top and bottom tiers based on recent production. Players who spend too long in the middle tier are among the streakiest, doing just enough to remain a quality option in the eye of the general public, but struggling to return value on a consistent basis.
Other members of this tier are usually players who have reasonable track records of offensive success in the past but, whether due to age, deteriorating team play, or just a down season, are no longer reliable options. It's imperative for owners to quickly change their perception of certain players.