Correlation Play - Week 3's Top Running Back-D/ST Duos
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Running backs and team defenses may not seem like an obvious combo, but the better a defense plays, the more carries a running back gets. The more a running back produces, the less time his defense will spend on the field. Here are the top running back-defense/special teams duos of Week 3:
Jay Ajayi & Miami Dolphins D/ST (vs. Browns)
This is by far the most affordable correlation play of the week. They should be rostered together in nearly every single lineup.
Miami's defense was lit up by the Patriots in Week 2, but held Seattle to just 12 points in Week 1. Expect the unit to have a big day in their home opener against the Browns, who will start third-round and third-string rookie Cody Kessler at QB. Expect plenty of sacks from a D-line that includes Mario Williams, Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake.
With Arian Foster ruled out, the low-priced Ajayi could carry the ball around 20 times. If Miami gets a big lead and can control the pace of the game, it could be up to 30 carries. The volume alone makes him an outstanding value play. When you factor in how bad the Browns' defense is, he becomes as close as you can get to a must-roster.
Ezekiel Elliott & Dallas Cowboys D/ST (vs. Bears)
Dallas' defense certainly isn't great, but its deficiencies can be swept under the rug if the offense is able to control the ball. They should be able to do just that against a Bears defense that has major issues across their front seven. The Cowboys have arguably the best offensive line in the league, creating a huge mismatch in the trenches.
This could wind up being Elliott's breakout performance. His ownership might actually be low considering his early struggles. Chicago's run defense currently ranks 22nd in the NFL. They allowed 106 yards to Lamar Miller in Week 1 and 90 yards to the Eagles' running backs in Week 2.
Chicago will be playing on short rest after partaking in the Monday night game this past week. Not only could they come out sluggish, but this means they will have less time to prepare the offense around QB Brian Hoyer, who will be starting under center for the injured Jay Cutler. Cutler isn't great by any stretch of the imagination, but Hoyer is still a significant downgrade.
David Johnson & Arizona Cardinals D/ST (at Bills)
Starting a defense on the road usually isn't recommended, but this week the Cardinals are an exception. They will be facing a Bills offense that just fired their offensive coordinator and will likely be missing LT Cordy Glenn and its only legitimate receiving threat, Sammy Watkins. Even if Watkins does play, his foot will hold him back and he will be neutralized by CB Patrick Peterson.
Even though Arizona will be travelling to the east coast, its offense should have no problem against Buffalo. Rex Ryan's defense couldn't get off the field in their last meeting with the Jets. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 374 yards and was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week. A lack of pressure on the QB held Buffalo's secondary out the dry.
Buffalo's new OC, Anthony Lynn, has expressed his desire to push the pace of the offense. This will only give Arizona more time with the ball offensively. With nose tackle Marcell Dareus still suspended and rookie linebackers Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland still injured, Johnson could have himself a day running the football.