How to approach your draft slot
Much draft prep will come down to subjective preference. There is no guarantee at any slot. You could draw the second overall, thinking Houston Rockets SG James Harden will be available only to watch him get snagged.
Sure, the alternative is pretty wonderful with Oklahoma City Thunder PG Russell Westbrook or either of the Golden State Warriors top stars still available, but it's still frustrating to get snaked.
FantasyPros has a handy ADP consensus that will tell part of the story, and will help form the base of what we are looking at, but variables will always be present when actual humans are involved. Depending on where you draft, the makeup of your rosters will be drastically different, including which positions you target at which point.
Scenario 1: Early Draft Slot
In 10-team leagues, an early draft slot will net you Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Westbrook or Harden. Whomever you choose, it should directly impact your second choice in the late teens to the 20th pick, overall.
While those who insist on taking the best available player no matter what may end up saddled with two players at the same position - in this case PGs Curry and Kyrie Irving are possibilities - with picks so far apart on the ends, not spreading it out a bit could be detrimental.
Assuming a balanced lineup is the ideal - not all will agree - there are several ways to target from these early positions. Without major reaches like taking Milwaukee Bucks G/F Giannis Antetokounmpo with the first overall pick, here are some top five combinations you may consider targeting:
It's an imperfect system, but these are all varied and possible outcomes based on current ADP. Pairing the "Splash Brothers" is indeed a possibility, but a big should be taken alongside them. Instead of Griffin, Detroit Pistons C Andre Drummond should conceivably be available as well. Adding Wiggins gets more scoring, as does a healthy Gasol.
Alternately, replace Curry with Westbrook and follow the same pattern.
Options B and C change the pattern by slotting in a PG with your second pick. Ten point guards will likely be selected in the first 30 picks. It's paramount to get a good one. Walker and Lowry make for solid second choices if you miss out on, or choose to skip, the likes of Curry.
Scenario 2: Middle Draft Slot
With a mid-first round selection, you'll never go as long between picks as those near the edges, but you'll never get those back-to-back choices that are really helpful. The first round will offer a variety of players assuming their superfans don't reach in the first few picks.
The three likeliest characters, who we'll use as our springboards, are LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Kawhi Leonard. One is an aging superstar, the next is injury prone but amazing when playing, and the last is more of a real-game stud than a fantasy darling. Still, there is something to be said for the stability Leonard can bring to the table.
Options A and B both go with a PG in the second slot, while Option C doubles down on the SG/SF combo. Thomas is risky with the Boston Celtics making some changes, but he should still be the one running the ofense. Option A elects for two bigs and rounds out the top five with last year's assist leader.
These lineups aren't perfectly balanced, but they will provide cornering of certain categories. Option B is the most balanced, able to fill all five positions. Combining Drummond and Gobert in Option C will make it difficult for opponents to challenge in blocks and rebounds.
Scenario 3: Late Draft Slot
At the end of the first round, there is a ton of value to be found. Just last year, Westbrook was available in this slot and he was among the absolute best in fantasy production. With the turn, it's possible to get two excellent options back-to-back, which muddies the options slightly.
Still, there is plenty of opportunity at a variety of positions. With Westbrook and Curry already gone, a familiar face can be targeted at PG at the tail end of the first round.
These are all relatively top-heavy in terms of quality. Option A is probably the steadiest, though there is potential upside in the other two options. With a pick at, or close to, the turn, fantasy owners may be forced to reach. A player like Antetokounmpo, who is eligible at a smattering of positions, allows for flexibility in roster construction.
An alternate, if selecting at the turn, is to choose Cousins and Antetokounmpo if they both stick around. That way, you get one of the most dominant bigs in the NBA and possibly the most versatile player in the game.
Verdict
For a mix of fantasy superstars with steady hands, selecting early is in fantasy owners' best interests. For an overall balanced attack, a mid-round slot can play out nicely. For rolling the dice on supreme upside, hope for the turn in the first round. It really depends on what combinations are most appealing to you.
This could be a great year to jump on a tandem of Cousins and Antetokounmpo. There will be owners who reach for either or both, but that will cause players currently going earlier in ADP to drop, so it's not a huge loss. But that upside makes the turn a fun, but challenging, proposition.