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Playing time increases: When they work, and when they don't

Jeff Hanisch / USA TODAY Sports

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Injuries happen each week in the NFL, opening the door for a new under-priced backup to emerge as the flavor of the week in daily fantasy. While ownership on players recently handed larger roles is often quite high, the increased playing time typically provides them with ample opportunity to produce quality results at a very low salary.

While the salary savings can make these possibilities difficult to pass up, there are rare occasions when a player fails to deliver after being thrust into a larger role. Here's a look at some examples from 2015 which produced the desired results, and others which fell flat:

Green Bay Packers, Week 1

In: WR Davante Adams | Out: Jordy Nelson

Prices had already been released for Week 1 NFL contests before Nelson's season-ending ACL tear during training camp. Adams was widely perceived as a bargain which couldn't be passed up as the No. 2 option in QB Aaron Rodgers' passing attack. He had a seemingly favorable matchup against the Chicago Bears, boosting his projection and ownership even more.

He fell well short. Adams caught just four of eight targets for 59 yards and failed to find the end zone. It took until Week 9 - Adams' fifth game of the season - to return tournament value in DFS. He did so on just two other occasions, including the postseason. Adams has caught just 55.3 percent of his targets for his two-year career.

Verdict: Bust

Dallas Cowboys, Week 2

In: WR Terrance Williams | Out: Dez Bryant

Williams had caught no more than 44 passes nor totaled more than 736 yards in the first two years of his NFL career, but he was given a legitimate chance after Cowboys WR Dez Bryant was felled by injury partway through Week 1. Williams was promoted to WR1 for a Week 2 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles.

His price was still in check, and he delivered with four catches for 84 yards and a touchdown. Williams did not have much competition within the Dallas receiving corps, allowing him to break out as the new favorite target of QBs Tony Romo and Brandon Weeden, after Weeden replaced the injured Romo partway through the game.

Verdict: Success

Baltimore Ravens, Week 10

In: WR Kamar Aiken | Out: Steve Smith Sr.

Aiken replaced Smith Sr. following a Week 9 bye as the top option in the Ravens' passing game for Week 10 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He ended up returning cash-game value, catching seven of 14 targets for 73 yards.

Cash games were all Aiken should have been targeted in, as the Ravens had succumbed to a plethora of injuries by this point in the season. Aiken had already established himself as a reliable weapon in the passing game, and he was sure to benefit from his first game with double-digit targets.

Verdict: Success

In: RB Devonta Freeman, Falcons | Out: Tevin Coleman | Week 3

Both expectations and salary were modest for Freeman entering his Week 3 start. He had lost out on the starting job to rookie Tevin Coleman in the preseason, but Coleman's injury in Week 2 opened the door for what would turn out to be a breakout season.

Freeman immediately returned tournament value, which he would also do in each of the next three games. In his debut, he totaled 193 yards and three touchdowns. Freeman didn't show much promise in his rookie year, but he proved critics wrong with his first true opportunity in his sophomore season.

Verdict: Success

Carolina Panthers, Week 15

In: RB Cameron Artis-Payne | Out: Jonathan Stewart

After averaging 4.1 yards per rushing attempt and totaling seven touchdowns in 13 games, Stewart shifted to the sidelines for Week 15, as the Panthers had already locked up their playoff position. Artis-Payne, a fifth-round rookie, was the DFS flavor of the week, as most owners were willing to look past lumbering veteran Fozzy Whittaker, who had been named the official starter.

Artis-Payne did return cash-game value, but just barely. His 59 yards and two receptions weren't what was expected from the running back for the league's top offense. Even at a near-minimum salary, he did not do enough.

Verdict: Bust

While injuries do offer great sources of value, owners still need to be aware of several key factors before going all in on a player. The ideal situations for an increased role include:

  • Full share of starter's duties
  • Unexpected/last-minute move into starting role
  • Experience within offense
  • Favorable matchup

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