Targeting second matchups against elite divisional defenses
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Looking at just fantasy defenses and not D/STs, which also incorporate punt and kickoff return touchdowns into scoring, the Kansas City Chiefs had the highest-scoring unit in 2015. Their 178 points narrowly topped the Denver Broncos, with four other teams scoring more than 150 fantasy points.
These six defenses could be considered legitimate fantasy assets and likely remained on the same fantasy team for the vast majority of the season. While most fantasy owners prefer to stream defenses based on matchup (a highly productive strategy), these six were consistently reliable.
In turn, these were the defenses whose opponents were most often avoided in daily fantasy. With the exception of elite offensive players or shot-in-the-dark contrarian plays, they warranted a strong fade for all opposing players.
Is there any advantage to be gained by divisional opponents in a second matchup against these elite defenses? Here we look at how top-scoring QBs, RBs, and WRs fared in their second meeting with a top-tier, division rival defense:
Quarterback
| Rank | Name | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Cam Newton | NA |
| 2. | Tom Brady | NA |
| 3. | Blake Bortles | HOU |
| 4. | Russell Wilson | ARI |
| 5. | Carson Palmer | SEA |
| 6. | Drew Brees | CAR |
| 7. | Eli Manning | NA |
| 8. | Matthew Stafford | NA |
| 9. | Kirk Cousins | NA |
| 10. | Philip Rivers | KC/DEN |
| 11. | Ryan Fitzpatrick | NA |
| 12. | Aaron Rodgers | NA |
Bortles vs. Texans
Matchup 1: 30-for-53, 331 YDS, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 12 RUSH YDS
Matchup 2: 17-for-32, 239 YDS, 0 TDs, 2 INTs
Wilson vs. Cardinals
Matchup 1: 14-for-32, 240 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT, 52 RUSH YDS
Matchup 2: 19-for-28, 197 YDS, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 13 RUSH YDS
Palmer vs. Seahawks
Matchup 1: 29-for-47, 363 YDS, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Matchup 2: 12-for-25, 129 YDS, 1 TDs, 1 INT
Brees vs. Panthers
Brees missed the Saints' first game against the Panthers due to injury.
Rivers vs. Chiefs
Matchup 1: 19-for-30, 178 YDS, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 8 RUSH YDS
Matchup 2: 24-for-43, 263 YDS, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 4 RUSH YDS
Rivers vs. Broncos
Matchup 1: 18-for-35, 202 YDS, 0 TDs, 1 INT
Matchup 2: 21-for-35, 228 YDS, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 5 RUSH YDS
While we're clearly dealing with a very small sample here, quarterback performance is much more a result of how teams have been playing leading up to their intra-divisional matchups. Many second matchups come in the final weeks of the season, when the team's primary goal may not be to win the game, and playing time may not be guaranteed.
Running back
| Rank | Name | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Devonta Freeman | CAR |
| 2. | Adrian Peterson | NA |
| 3. | Doug Martin | CAR |
| 4. | DeAngelo Williams | NA |
| 5. | Todd Gurley | ARI/SEA |
| 6. | Lamar Miller | NA |
| 7. | Chris Ivory | NA |
| 8. | David Johnson | SEA |
| 9. | Matt Forte | NA |
| 10. | Latavius Murray | KC/DEN |
| 11. | Frank Gore | NA |
| 12. | Danny Woodhead | KC/DEN |
Freeman vs. Panthers
Matchup 1: 40 RUSH YDS, 3 REC, 22 REC YDs, 0 TDs
Matchup 2: 73 RUSH YDS, 3 REC, 17 REC YDS, 1 TD
Martin vs. Panthers
Matchup 1: 106 RUSH YDS, 5 REC, 37 REC YDS, 1 TD
Matchup 2: 48 RUSH YDS, 7 REC, 60 REC YDS, 0 TDs
Gurley vs. Cardinals
Matchup 1: RUSH YDS, 2 REC, 15 REC YDS, 0 TDs
Matchup 2: 41 RUSH YDS, 0 REC, 0 TDs
Gurley vs. Seahawks
Gurley did not play in the Rams' first game against the Seahawks.
Johnson vs. Seahawks
Johnson hardly played in the Cardinals' first game against the Seahawks, as he was still serving as the backup to Chris Johnson.
Murray vs. Chiefs
Matchup 1: 86 RUSH YDS, 4 REC, 11 REC YDS, 1 TD
Matchup 2: 31 RUSH YDS, 4 REC, 25 REC YDS, 0 TDs
Murray vs. Broncos
Matchup 1: 39 RUSH YDS, 3 REC, 18 REC YDS, 0 TDs
Matchup 2: 27 RUSH YDS, 0 TDs
Woodhead vs. Chiefs
Matchup 1: 7 RUSH YDS, 1 REC, 9 REC YDS, zero TDs
Matchup 2: 5 RUSH YDS, 3 REC, 8 REC YDS, zero TDs
Woodhead vs. Broncos
Matchup 1: 10 RUSH YDS, 3 REC, 24 REC YDS, zero TDs
Matchup 2: 11 RUSH YDS, 8 REC, 51 REC YDS, zero TDs
Defenses seemed to adapt much better to running back play. Running back play typically declines throughout a season, especially with so much injury turnover at the position. Even rare true workhorse backs should be avoided in their second matchup against an elite defense within their division.
Wide receiver
| Rank | Name | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Antonio Brown | NA |
| 2. | Julio Jones | CAR |
| 3. | Brandon Marshall | NA |
| 4. | Allen Robinson | HOU |
| 5. | Odell Beckham Jr. | NA |
| 6. | DeAndre Hopkins | NA |
| 7. | Doug Baldwin | ARI |
| 8. | A.J. Green | NA |
| 9. | Larry Fitzgerald | SEA |
| 10. | Calvin Johnson | NA |
| 11. | Eric Decker | NA |
| 12. | Brandin Cooks | CAR |
Jones vs. Panthers
Matchup 1: 7 REC, 88 YDS, 0 TDs
Matchup 2: 9 REC, 178 YDS, 1 TD
Robinson vs. Texans
Matchup 1: 6 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Matchup 2: 5 REC, 108 YDS, 0 TDs
Baldwin vs. Cardinals
Matchup 1: 7 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD
Matchup 2: 5 REC, 46 YDS, 0 TDs
Fitzgerald vs. Seahawks
Matchup 1: 10 REC, 130 YDS, 0 TDs
Matchup 2: 6 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
Cooks vs. Panthers
Matchup 1: 7 REC, 79 YDS, 0 TDs
Matchup 2: 6 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
While largely tied to quarterback play, elite wide receivers seem to be least affected in second matchups. The better the defense, the more likely they are to instill a fade of their opponents, opening a low-ownership window for top-tier receivers unlikely to see a dip in their performance.