Recognizing opportunity in fantasy basketball as it unfolds
Unlike fantasy football, where the majority of transactions occur on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, the daily schedule of basketball means that staying up to date on the news is the surest way to succeed. There are no breaks; whoever can claim a free agent first is rewarded for their diligence. Knowing something about a player's outlook before news breaks will help you act fast.
While news regarding injuries or changes to the roster can come out of nowhere, there are also some tell-tale signs that an unheralded or undervalued player could find themselves thrust into the fantasy spotlight. This is crucial for finding cheap value in daily fantasy contests but can certainly be applied to season-long leagues as well.
You never know when your waiver-wire flier could be the next Jeremy Lin or Devin Booker - lightning in a bottle.
Looking for Positive Indicators of Future Success
You can use a player's splits, such as those listed by Basketball Reference, to help recognize opportunity. Two simple splits that can give a better idea of how a player is trending are per-game production separated month and by minutes played.
Looking at a player's month-to-month progression, especially in minutes played per game, can show how a player's role in changing. You'll find that some (but not all) rookies see their minutes per game rise from November to March, a reflection of their ability to learn and execute their team's system.
This chart below shows how Denver Nuggets' PF/C Nikola Jokic's minutes changed from October to April; he took on a full-time starting job on Jan. 2:
| MONTH | MPG |
|---|---|
| October | 11.0 |
| November | 18.1 |
| December | 20.6 |
| January | 21.0 |
| February | 21.0 |
| March | 25.2 |
| April | 30.9 |
Even if there isn't an objective change in role like a promotion into the starting lineup, you can still get an idea of how a player is valued by their organization. If a player who was averaging 30 minutes per game in November is averaging 25 minutes a game in January, you might be tying your fantasy hopes to a sinking ship.
Once a player has been around the league a little longer and you have a larger data set to draw from, you can check out their splits in terms of how they produce when they play a certain range of minutes. Here's Jokic's production, in terms of MPG (GP is games played):
| MPG | GP | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-39 | 10 | 16.5 | 11.4 | 3.4 |
| 20-29 | 46 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 3.0 |
| 10-19 | 14 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 1.5 |
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
Sometimes you'll notice that a player that usually averages five points and five rebounds in 10 minutes a game has averaged 15 points and 10 rebounds on occasions when he has played 20-30 minutes. That's not a perfect indicator of potential because it ignores context, but it can still show what a player is capable of when giving a greater workload.
Case Study: Patty Mills and the San Antonio Spurs
Call it the Gregg Popovich way; for coaches with their eyes set on a championship (and not on your fantasy team), older players and those with a history of injuries can often be expected to play 10 to 20 games fewer than their younger, healthier contemporaries.
The Spurs have done this to great effect in recent years, giving veterans like PG Tony Parker, SG Manu Ginobili and now-retired C Tim Duncan nights off throughout the season, even when they're healthy enough to play. You see this a lot with games on back-to-back days in the middle of the season: Parker might take the first game off, while Ginobili takes off the second game, helping lower both players' overall mileage without sacrificing.
That instantly creates a massive opportunity for the other players on the Spurs who would otherwise see lower minutes and less opportunities to produce in fantasy-relevant categories.
Take Patty Mills. The backup point guard to Parker, Mills played a career-high 20.5 minutes per game in 2015-16 but didn't do one thing well-enough on a per-game basis to warrant consideration in season-long formats. However, when Mills has played between 30-39 minutes per game in his career, the Aussie has averaged 18.7 points, four assists and three rebounds.
With Parker now 34 years old, expect to see Mills take on starters' minutes with greater regularity, which should allow him to easily return cash game value in DFS. That foreshadows the potential of a role player like Mills in the even that Parker missed a substantial amount of time with an injury.
Remember: the best fantasy managers balance a deeper understanding of the human side of basketball with objective analysis to back it up. Could Mills finally breakout as a top-100 fantasy player this season? The numbers show that he has the ability. It will be up to you to find the right opportunity to buy-low when he's on the come up.