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2016-17 Fantasy Basketball Rookie Outlook

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Last season saw several rookies either blossom into superstars or show signs of their potential. Minnesota Timberwolves C Karl-Anthony Towns is a surefire first-round candidate in standard leagues, and New York Knicks PF/C Kristaps Porzingis isn't that far behind him.

While a highly-touted rookie is not guaranteed to make an immediate difference like those above - think of Orlando Magic SG Mario Hezonja last season - there are plenty worth considering at various points in drafts.

SF/PF Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

The first overall pick in 2016 enters the season as another in a long line of young hopefuls to hit the court for the 76ers in recent years. In his one year at Louisiana State, Simmons scored 19.2 points per game while adding 11.8 rebounds and 4.8 assists. He's a multi-talented player capable of contributing across all major fantasy categories.

Simmons is expected to do a ton of ball-handling; Philadelphia features a weak backcourt with guards Jerryd Bayless and Gerald Henderson tentatively penciled into starting gigs to start the season. So, there are holes. That might actually benefit Simmons in terms of his fantasy potential.

As with almost all rookies, there will be growing pains - but he has many facets to his game, which led to his No. 1 selection. The 76ers won't need to groom him. He'll start from Day 1 and have far more immediate value than any other draft pick from this year's class.

SF Brandon Ingram, Los Angeles Lakers

While Simmons is the closest to a sure thing in 2016-17, Ingram has sharp upside but lacks a clear path to significant playing time. When the Lakers signed SF Luol Deng, it created a logjam on the wing. That Deng is signed for four seasons raises questions about Ingram's role.

While the depth chart could shuffle around to accommodate Ingram or others - Deng has spent time at PF, for instance - there is a lot of uncertainty. If new head coach Luke Walton mirrors the philosophy of Golden State Warriors, he could explore several lineup variations early to shake out the best returns.

Don't reach for Ingram, but he's not a bad reserve in case he impresses early. Still, it's a bit of a long shot; he'll largely be at the mercy of young distributors D'Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson to get the ball in his hands.

C Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

Embiid's debut has been on hold for two seasons following his selection in the 2014 draft. As sparse as the 76ers backcourt seems, the frontcourt is a little crowded, which makes it easier for Philadelphia to take its time with Embiid. Missing two full seasons without playing a single minute suggests the team should be careful.

It also limits any fantasy value he might have with Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor cemented into their starting roles for the time being. Embiid is an enigmatic talent who could showcase double-double averages given the time to develop and the minutes to play, but that can't be counted on immediately. A late round flier is as high as he should be go.

PF/C Dragan Bender & PF Marquese Chriss, Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns feature a crowded but young frontcourt, save for C Tyson Chandler. Bender has not played stateside, but was taken fourth overall because of his raw potential as an athletic seven-footer. While he won't necessarily waltz into a starting role like Porzingis did in New York, he could see the floor regularly with the Suns clearly far from playoff contention.

Chriss, one of the other teenagers on the roster -- second year guard Devin Booker is still only 19 - will compete for time. As such, neither Chriss or Bender can be fully counted on until their situations become more apparent. Their high draft selections suggest potential, but it may be a while before it's realized. They offer little outside deep keeper formats in fantasy drafts.

The Next Five

  • PG Kris Dunn, Minnesota Timberwolves: Similar to the rest, Dunn is at the mercy of playing time, being locked in behind a returning veteran. Unless a huge shake-up happens in Minnesota's backcourt, expect Dunn to be led along by current PG Ricky Rubio. At 22, he's closer to NBA-ready like Hield, and may not require much seasoning.
  • PF Thon Maker, Milwaukee Bucks: At 7'1", Maker may wind up more suited to play center, and that may be where his easiest path to playing time comes from. If incumbent C Greg Monroe gets dealt, as has been rumored, Maker should see the floor, though his slight frame will likely struggle with the physicality of the pro game at first.
  • SF Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics: The Celtics are deep - and should be so for a long time thanks to the surfeit of draft picks they've received via trade. With Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley on the wing, it might take ineffectiveness from Amir Johnson at PF to force a change in the rotation and get Brown the playing time he needs to be relevant in fantasy.
  • G Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets: Likely a reserve in his first season, Murray has real scoring talent, averaging 20 points per game in his one college season with Kentucky. He also shot over 40 percent from three-point range. He didn't show much else beyond a handful of rebounds. A year of work on his supporting skills could lead to a 2017-18 breakout.

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