2016/2017 Fantasy Outlook: Atlantic Division
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Throughout the month of October, theScore will examine the offseason moves and biggest fantasy storylines of each NBA team. This edition focuses on the Atlantic Division.
Division Outlook
Atlantic | Central | Southeast
Pacific | Southwest | Northwest
Toronto Raptors
Big Picture: This is still DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry's team. Expect their fantasy production to remain largely unchanged. There are areas in which the duo will seek to improve - DeRozan will continue to work on his 3-point shot; Lowry will likely try to get the post-scorers more involved earlier - but you can expect more of the same across the board.
The seven players that led Toronto in minutes per game are all returning, lending a major dose of year-to-year stability; expect the team to play relatively close to full speed from the get-go, adding some predictability in DFS contests. Trusting in sophomore guard Norm Powell could return early dividends; he figures to be a large component of the Raptors' bench scoring.
X-Factor: The departure of Luis Scola and Bismack Biyombo leaves 42 minutes a night to be reassigned among a big man rotation. C Jonas Valanciunas should crack 30 minutes a game for the first time in his career; with added playing time, 15 points and 10 rebounds represent a reasonable fantasy baseline. He should start moving up draft boards.
Jared Sullinger is likely to start at power forward, leaving Patrick Patterson on the outside looking in. Patterson's usage will depend greatly on his defense, especially rim-protection; pairing him with Valanciunas makes sense, allowing Sullinger and project big man Lucas Nogueira or first-round pick Jakob Poeltl to provide relief against opposing bench units.
Boston Celtics
Big Picture: After slowly divesting the last remnants of their 2008 title team, Boston has finally made good on their promise to convert some of their liquid assets - cap space and draft picks - into a big-name acquisition. The team saw to it that former Hawks' big man Al Horford would be swimming, both literally and figuratively, in a sea of green for years to come.
Horford raises the floor dramatically for Boston's frontcourt. They made it through last season with a motley crew of aging veterans and unfulfilled potential, including glass-kneed Amir Johnson, tweener Kelly Olynyk, Jonas Jerebko and the since-departed Sullinger. Coach Brad Stevens will find ways to highlight what they do best but the heavy-lifting - on the boards and as a secondary scoring option - will come from Horford.
X-Factor: Don't expect Horford's presence to have a radical impact on Isaiah Thomas' production; any loss in scoring opportunities will be made up for by an increase in assists. In any case, Horford's usage rate from 2012-16 is just 21.9 percent; Sullinger's was 22 percent over that same period, albeit in fewer minutes per game. Stevens is an economist in a coach's body; he'll find a way to get both All-Stars their touches.
But two high-level offensive contributors have to come at the cost of someone - and the most likely candidates are the Celtics' defensive-minded wings. Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder took the second and third-most shots on the team, combining for nearly 25 per game. They'll still get their shots up but their scoring will take a big hit with a much bigger mouth to feed on the team. It would be wise to bump both down your draft queue.
New York Knicks
Big Picture: The Knicks had a busy offseason, bringing aboard Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah. That would have been a happier sentence to write four years ago. Rose played 66 games in his final season in Chicago, which was a major coup considering he'd played 61 games in the previous three seasons combined. Noah saw just 29 games before an injured shoulder shut down his season by mid-January.
There are three ways this plays out: the injury-prone newcomers combine for 130 games of solid late-round fantasy production, making Carmelo Anthony's life a little easier; alternatively, Rose and Noah are both out by December and the Knicks play back their 2015-16 season, with Carmelo having a larger individual impact and sophomore Kristaps Porzingis developing consistency in his game. Option three is something in between.
X-Factor: Beyond health (and really, nothing about this Knicks' season is ever going to transcend that overarching theme), the biggest question is: what does Porzingis do in year two? Has the team sold Rose on being a shot-creator for his teammates, first and foremost, or will his tendency to takeover games stunt the Latvian's growth?
Porzingis averaged 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.9 blocks and 1.1 3-point shots made in 28.4 minutes as a rookie. Porzingis' ranking in FantasyPros' expert consensus has him going as high as middle of the third round and as low as the fourth in 10-team leagues. His potential is tied to Rose and Noah; if Rose is ball-dominant, KP's value slides, but if the newcomers are complimentary (or hurt), Porzingis should hit his upper-end projections.
Brooklyn Nets
Big Picture: If you thought there was uncertainty surrounding the Knicks, then it might be time for a roll-call to figure out who is still on the Brooklyn Nets. Actually, let's start with those that are no longer on the team, ranked by minutes played: Thaddeus Young, Joe Johnson, Shane Larkin, Wayne Ellington, Donald Sloan, Jarrett Jack.
Throw in lame-duck tag-team coaches Lionel Hollins and Tony Brown and it's clear the franchise has hit the reset button with authority. What you're left with is Brook Lopez, Bojan Bogdanovic, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and a fistful of lottery tickets. Other than Lopez posting solid point and rebound totals for a team with few other options, the range of possibility is immense.
X-Factor: BrookLinsanity? Put it on a t-shirt. While Lopez is a known commodity, it will be Jeremy Lin that offers massive returns for those that take a mid-round flier on his services. This is the first time since his February 2012 breakout that he hasn't had to share the ball-handling duties with a high-usage ball-dominant scorer. There will be no Kobe Bryant, James Harden or even a Kemba Walker cannibalizing his production.
It wouldn't be a shock to see Lin average career numbers across the board. The only other proven guard on the roster are Greivis Vasquez. Most analysts have Lin ranked just outside the top-100 players; reaching for his potential in the seventh or eighth round is a high-reward bet with little downside.
Philadelphia 76ers
Big Picture: After years of waiting, the 76ers will finally see the final three of their remaining big-ticket lottery picks arrive in the NBA. First overall pick Ben Simmons will be joined by the third and 12th picks in the 2014 draft, Joel Embiid, and Dario Saric. But wait - didn't Philadelphia already have two highly-drafted big men in Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor?
With many mouths to feed and a lack of minutes, everyone's fantasy production will suffer. Adding an unfortunate wrinkle is a preseason foot injury to Simmons, who will become the 76ers' third lottery pick in recent memory to be unavailable to start Game 1 of his rookie season due to injury. It's not known when he will return but Brett Brown will have to figure out a way to deliver the ball to his bigs without Simmons' playmaking.
X-Factor: How much time will these 76ers have to see what they are before the new Colangelo-led regime starts itching to push the buttons on the trade machine? General manager Bryan Colangelo has a history of swinging for the fences with franchise altering moves (recall that his Raptors turned Jermaine O'Neal into Shawn Marion into Hedo Turkoglu into Leandro Barbosa in a span of two years and five days).
Could he look at moving an incongruous piece like Okafor for immediate backcourt help? That would be a boon to fantasy players invested in the 76ers. The path to consistent, sustainable fantasy returns requires something breaking up that logjam in the front court. There are only so many minutes and only so many rebound opportunities available.