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Fantasy: 10 bust candidates to avoid in your draft (Updated)

Chris Humphreys / USA TODAY Sports

Get ready for your season with theScore's 2016 Fantasy Football Draft Kit.

Having one of your draft picks bust is one of the worst things that can happen to a fantasy owner. Not only does it set your team back, there's the embarrassment of having that player on your roster, and the frustration over deciding when to cut ties.

In an effort to prevent you from suffering one of fantasy's greatest hardships, here are this year's top bust candidates.

Average draft position (ADP) data courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator and based on 12-team leagues with standard scoring.

Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars

Bortles, who went undrafted in most leagues last season, ended the year as fantasy's fourth-best quarterback, with 4,428 passing yards and 35 touchdowns. It was a massive jump forward for a player who threw 11 touchdowns in 14 games the year before. But are those totals here to stay? Bortles' 2015 numbers were severely inflated by Jacksonville's game scripts, as the team often found itself trailing and forced to throw. With improvements to its defense and running game, Jacksonville should be much more competitive, which will reduce the need to take to the air in comeback mode.

Bust potential: ☠☠☠☠
ADP: Early 8th round

Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons

Freeman finished as the top-scoring fantasy running back in 2015, yet is being drafted outside the first round, suggesting more than a few fantasy owners suspect last year's biggest breakout could be this year's biggest bust. Freeman did the bulk of his damage between Weeks 3-7 last year (including all his 100-yard rushing games and multi-touchdown games), and was much less impressive down the stretch. Not coincidentally, Freeman's production peaked as backup Tevin Coleman battled a rib injury. Freeman will get the first crack at lead duties this season, but Coleman lurks in the shadows and this situation could easily turn into a 50-50 timeshare.

Bust potential: ☠☠☠☠☠
ADP: Mid 2nd round

Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers

You don't often see a former fantasy stud look as lost as Lacy did at times last year. Poor conditioning derailed his entire season, with Lacy failing to compile 1,000 total yards. After reportedly weighing more than 260 pounds during last year's campaign, Lacy spent this offseason working out with P90X founder Tony Horton and appeared to be in better shape when he showed up at Packers OTAs. The coaching staff didn't seem completely sold, however, and made it clear they want to see more progress. Despite his disappointing season, Lacy's ADP rests comfortably in the second round, which is far too high for a player surrounded by so much uncertainty.

Bust potential: ☠☠☠☠
ADP: Mid 2nd round

Matt Forte, RB, Jets

Forte will enter the year as a 30-year-old running back with eight seasons of NFL-level wear and tear on his body. This is the point when many rushers hit a different phase of their career and Forte might be heading in that direction with his rushing totals declining each year since 2013. His new opportunity in New York seems promising, but the Jets also want to get Bilal Powell and Khiry Robinson involved. That means Forte, who was the center of the Bears' attack, might find more competition for touches with his new team.

Bust potential: ☠☠☠☠☠
ADP: Mid 4th round

Jeremy Langford, RB, Bears

Langford burst onto the scene with 324 yards and three touchdowns in Weeks 9 and 10 as a rookie, then watched as the Bears let Matt Forte walk in free agency. But don't assume feature back duties are in this sophomore's future. Langford's 3.6 yards per carry were wholly unimpressive, so much so that the Bears made a run at C.J. Anderson in free agency before opting instead to add Jordan Howard in the fifth round of the draft. With Ka'Deem Carey and Jacquizz Rodgers also in the picture and head coach John Fox's running-back-by-committee preference well known, Langford's weekly upside might be limited.

Bust potential: ☠☠☠☠
ADP: Late 4th round

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos

Once a locked-in WR1, is it possible the 28-year-old Thomas has peaked? Though Thomas caught 105 passes last year, second-most in his career, he turned them into a career-low 12.4 yards per reception and was largely ineffective in the red zone. Some will point to the Broncos' sub-par quarterback play as the cause of Thomas' downward slide, but is there reason to believe he'll get better support this season from Mark Sanchez, Trevor Siemian, or rookie Paxton Lynch?

Bust potential: ☠☠☠
ADP: Mid 3rd round

Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers

Benjamin had an outstanding rookie season, before missing all of last year with a torn ACL. By all accounts, his recovery is going well and he should be full speed come the regular season, however, he's returning to a much different Panthers offense. Two years ago, Cam Newton locked on Benjamin, as the pair combined for nine touchdowns and more than 1,000 yards. In 2016, Newton is much better at spreading the ball around and the team has developed more options in the passing game, including promising sophomore Devin Funchess. Benjamin is no longer the only option in Carolina's receiving corps.

Bust potential: ☠☠☠☠☠
ADP: Late 3rd round

Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles

The Eagles' offense is undergoing a massive renovation as Chip Kelly's uptempo attack is replaced by Doug Pederson's more conservative approach. The biggest difference will be the amount of plays the team runs, which will lead to less targets and ultimately fewer fantasy points to go around. Then there's Matthews' affinity for the slot, or perhaps it's his inability to play on the outside. Either way, he may lose snaps if he's unable to prove to the new coaching staff that he's capable of winning outside the hashmarks. Matthews has been a serviceable fantasy player in his first two seasons, but anyone waiting for a breakout should look elsewhere.

Bust potential: ☠☠☠☠
ADP: Late 7th round

Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars

Jacksonville's Allens (Robinson and Hurns) combined to catch 24 touchdowns in 2015. There's essentially no chance they do it again. Robinson remains an elite fantasy option, but the less talented Hurns should expect to lose targets to Julius Thomas and a greater emphasis on the running game, which now boasts a one-two punch of Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon. The improved Jaguars defense should depress Hurns' fantasy output, too, as he likely won't have nearly as many chances to rack up easy yards against soft defenses in garbage time.

Bust potential: ☠☠☠☠
ADP: Early 6th round

Delanie Walker, TE, Titans

Walker was perhaps the lone bright spot outside of rookie passer Marcus Mariota for the Titans last year, recording career highs in catches, yards, and touchdowns. It was a perfect storm for Walker, who was the only reliable receiver on a wayward offense without anything resembling a rushing attack, and was force-fed targets. The Titans spent their offseason ensuring they won't have to rely on Walker to that extent again. They added Rishard Matthews in free agency and have talked up rookie Tajae Sharpe as a potential starter. More importantly, they vastly improved their run game with the additions of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. Walker's big 2015 was an aberration, not a sign of things to come.

Bust potential: ☠☠☠
ADP: Early 7th round

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